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History says that while the idea may have merit, the implementation has been poor, tragic even.


Also donating plasma was a better option than whole blood.


Man, I have been approached by guys like this, we have a good conversation, then they try to sell me something. The last few times someone has struck up a conversation with me out of nowhere it was to try and sell me something. I go to the gym every other day during lunch. Been doing it for years. Literally the only people that have ever talked to me were these MLM bros.

It made me feel profoundly sad the last time it happened. I don't know why really, but the fact that no one would ever talk to me unless they wanted to sell me something was just a hard thing to take.

So hearing that you hung out with these guys on purpose is fascinating to me. It all seems so contrived and artificial, but it seems you got something out of it at least. Did you end up making any real connections?

Since my experience feeling sad though I have tried to say hi and strike up conversations with strangers when it feels appropriate. People may be put off by it occasionally, but it's nice to connect with people, even if it's only briefly.


I can't say I really made any deep friendships, but they were fun "fair weather friends" to go to the bar with in my 20's. I'd say about half the people involved in that crowd were vapid. The other half were misfits desperate for a community. I myself appreciated the intense social focus on health and exercise, and the radical diversity of thought compared to my work social circle. At the time I was relatively dissatisfied with the types of projects getting dumped on me at work, and I was lonely from lack of meaningful relationships. So, it was a great way to tweak my work-life balance and avoid depression.

I think I was able to assimilate myself into their group because of my utter lack of agenda. I was as foreign to them as they were to me, but I was easy to talk to because I would offer a sympathetic ear or a witty joke rather than claim to have a lucrative nutritional solution. I also think there was some aspect of novelty to it that they enjoyed. I was the guy whose day job was making rocket ships, hanging out and taking an interest in their lives.

Here's something to keep in mind about those bros approaching you in the gym. It's a hustle, but they aren't trying to scam you. They're likely being genuine within the framework of their own life experiences. They've been taught that selling to strangers is their path to success. They are the foot soldiers in an army, following orders trickling down from ruthless generals aware the soldiers are probably going to die. When I went to that Herbalife convention, there were 2000 young people in a hotel conference hall all frantically taking notes. From my perspective, though, the speakers said nothing of substantial meaning. It was 100% affirmation. Thousands of pens writing it all down in notebooks. It was quite amazing for me to experience. If you're curious, next time someone like that approaches you at the gym, maybe give them the benefit of the doubt? Don't sign up for their MLM obviously, but don't be afraid of them either. If you're into protein shakes, throw $20 cash their way so they can move some inventory. If not, then politely decline. Either way, when you wrap up the conversation, ask them for their names again and give them a fist bump. Next time you see them in the gym, ask them for a spot, or say hi and just ask how the hustle is going. Embrace them as gym bros, and enjoy their company.

The girl that made the meetup posting was a single mother that had gotten pregnant as a teenager. She was trying to get out from being dependent on her own parents, and was focused on getting back into shape for the "bikini pageant" circuit she used to participate in. She was always friendly to me, but we had pretty much zero in common, and she obviously hoped I would join the MLM. She invited me to her birthday party and nobody talked about nutritional supplements there, so I think we were friends.

Her roommate Carlos was tall, handsome and ripped, and many of the girls in the group seemed to swoon for him. He also seemed like a genuinely friendly guy, if not a bit mysterious, and while we never had any memorable conversations, it was always nice to just quietly hang out in a dive bar on a Tuesday night and play pool or darts.

There was one guy that moved to LA to become an actor and comedian, but he worked as a waiter. When he first arrived he was pudgy and physically weak and lacked confidence. He was obsessed with one of the more seemingly vapid but gorgeous girls. She had him wrapped around her finger, but she obviously had her own eyes on Carlos. He was great entertainment when drunk, due to the self-awareness of his own mediocrity and his inherent desire to entertain. By the time I lost contact with him, he was lean and muscular, and successfully working as a Harry Potter look-a-like for hire.

There was a notably short girl who I thought had a quick wit and weird sense of humor. She seemed incapable of making any deep connections with anyone, though, because she was hung up bad on her ex-boyfriend, a guy almost twice her height. There was some overlap between my work circle and Herbalife circle at the local climbing gym, and my work friends knew that guy as "the Herbalife a-hole". He was even still driving her car around after 6 months. Hanging around at the climbing gym most days clinging on to her ex, she was a reliable bouldering buddy when I stopped by occasionally. With her suggestions I managed to complete some advanced dynamic routes that I still don't believe I was ever physically capable of.

There were some older, middle aged people always around at the beach workouts. I never interacted with them beyond pleasantries. They were the "lieutenants" of the MLM army, high enough in the organization that they were actually making some money. They would "mentor" the lower level recruits, providing the stereotypical unhealthy MLM pressure to sell-sell-sell. They were the a-holes that the climbing gym a-hole wanted to be.

There was another girl that seemed bright and interesting, perhaps even mature enough compared to the others to describe as a woman. She had the unique distinction of being the only female in that group that didn't deflect when I invited her out for a meal. It was a pleasant time, but didn't develop into anything friendship or otherwise.

When one guy joined the group, he was horribly depressed and had bandaids on his fingers from harming himself. He had a day job working on costuming for movies, and had recently had a bad experience interacting with a certain A list movie star. He had a rather peculiar hobby of producing avant garde LEGO figurine comic strips and posting them on Instagram. He was probably the most interesting person I met from that group, and we regularly chatted at gatherings. After a couple months of torturing himself with intense exercise, he seemed a lot happier and gave up his less healthy endorphin chasing habits. He had also built up a considerable Instagram following, and apparently even had some local groupies. Toward the end it all sounded pretty weird, but I was happy for him.

It's not quite true that I didn't form any strong friendships from that group. I met my friend Oliver when he showed up to one of the dodgeball games for similar reasons to why I did. We had a ton of common interests, though. We attended the same university, both worked in aerospace at the time, and both like computer games as a hobby. He was in the Air Force, now in the Space Force. He used to drive the "blue buses" on campus, and once unknowingly ripped a Prius in half while backing up without a spotter. He has three degrees, including one in performance violin. We aren't in regular contact since we're both married with kids in different parts of the country now, but we'll still get together and catch up every few years when it's convenient.


Thanks for sharing your experiences I found this very interesting. As you said yourself, an eclectic group of characters!


What does "take it seriously" mean? For me, taking it seriously means that I am trying to use it as multiplier to be better at my own job. Is there some better course of action you think we should be taking? I personally do not think it is going anywhere, so I figure I had better be the expert.


“Take it seriously” to me means that I’m using AI to be more productive while simultaneously preparing for a future where I can house and feed my family without relying on being employed as a knowledge worker. What exactly that looks like, I’m still not certain.

> so I figure I had better be the expert

Be an expert at what? Prompting AI to do things? There will be little to no expertise needed in the future as these tools evolve. That’s precisely what makes AI so disruptive. A basic set of instructions can be used to create something that previously would have took an entire team of skilled specialists to produce.

Sure, there will always be some experts, but these jobs will be few and far between, and they’ll be much more academic in nature. Having a job like this will be a luxury only a tiny percentage of the earths population will enjoy.

The only real question at this point is how fast will AI move to automate all of these jobs away. It could be 5 years it could be 20.

The jobs left in the wake of AI won’t require much education, skill, or talent, meaning they’ll be extremely low paying because almost anyone will be able to do them.


My problem is that without some legislation in place, there is no stoping this

In 10-20 years it will be robots with guns patrolling food production and distribution so you won’t even be able to steal a loaf of bread for your family.

I’m actually really concerned that if a more equal system doesn’t come soon. Many, many people will suffer very badly.


Treat your job like a major league sports career. You have 10 more years at most. Earn and save what you can.

I'm pretty much responding to this by trying to maximize my earning potential immediately (TC is the only king. No more gambits where I might take a lower-paying job to "learn more" or have better WLB) and planning on limiting my expenses.


IDK saving money? Make your life more about just your career like some people do? Train mental resilience? Learn a new skill? Vote better politicians who actually talk about this as a real problem?

We can all do a lot about this. Not saying it's easy though.


Which has mostly been born out, at least about criminals making opsec mistakes.


I think you are missing the point. People are not skinny because they "intellectually" know something. Nor are people fat because they are stupid, sometimes sure, but the societal trend towards obesity is not caused by ignorance. Read the article.


People absolutely are skinny because they intellectually know something, but the word “intellectually” doesn’t mean smart/stupid, it means “apply critical thinking to a situation” as opposed to allowing your animal brain to keep control.

To put it another way, system 1 will eat until its full, system 2 knows what a calorie is, and at least vaguely understands how many calories are in what you just ate against what you need to survive.

Skinny people are not smarter, they’ve either never had an impulse to eat more in the first place, or are able to react to the impulse with the part of the brain that reasons.


I think executive function might be a better way to understand obesity, rather than Kahneman's system 1 and system 2 thinking. Inhibitory control in particular seems more relevant[0].

Applying critical thinking (as opposed to applying inhibitory control) is only useful against obesity insofar as you can make changes to your lifestyle and diet. Lots of people know what a calorie is yet still fail to lose weight, because intellectually understanding something doesn't mean you can do it.

[0] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S01497...


Making changes to your lifestyle and diet is still the best, most reliable way to lose weight; this article’s science is far from conclusive or “production ready”, as engineers would say.


The "most reliable way to lose weight" doesn't work for most obese people. The studies on tirzepatide seem reasonably conclusive, at least as far as weight loss goes. Is your issue with undiscovered long-term side effects, or with lifelong dependence on a drug that causes unpleasant side effects, or something else?

My position at the moment is that different obesity interventions work for different people. Obesity is the result of a huge number of different factors such that no single intervention will work for everyone. An obvious example would be an obese patient with thyroid problems, vs an obese patient with sleep apnea: both sleep and thyroid function can cause weight gain, but they have different treatments. I don't think we should ignore a drug that works well in some stubborn cases, just because other cases can be fixed with lifestyle and diet changes.

(I say this as someone who lost 15kg, went from obese to normal, and has kept it off for years by occasional calorie tracking. Most evidence suggests this doesn't generally work for obese patients.)


> The "most reliable way to lose weight" doesn't work for most obese people.

Except that it does, for literally every single one of them. They simply don't do it.


Let's take 1000 people above 30 BMI and divide them between us. I give them my intervention of semaglutide and lifecycle changes; you give them your intervention of "work harder you lazy fatties."

I guarantee you an arbitrary amount of money my group will be >10% lighter than your group after 6 months.


Heh, and so there it is; you are insulted and feeling defensive.

Would it blow your mind to hear I agree, and never said anything to the contrary? Probably, if you weren’t feeling defensive.


It can't possibly work for literally every single one of them, because there are still obese people. "They simply don't do it" is a restatement of the problem rather than a solution, and about as helpful as telling coalminers to learn to code.


Maybe I reject the notion of lost causes, and don’t think it’s a good thing to count people out.


I think this is a values disagreement, not a factual one. I view obesity as a medical problem to be solved and not as a moral failure, whereas I think you see obesity as a moral struggle and drugs as a crutch or an admission of defeat. To me it's more about balancing the risks and dangers of an injection and making sure people have tried less risky things first, and "lost cause" is not how I'd describe taking a weekly injection to manage an otherwise-intractable medical problem.


Where did morality come from??? That's entirely injected from your own interpretations, and has absolutely nothing to do with what I said.

Honestly it sounds like you think people who are overweight have "failed" in some way, as I don't believe that at all. "Taking injections weekly" is also doing something about their obesity, which is just fine with me, I'm simply explaining how "willpower" is also a viable possibility. There's no need to take injections if you learn more about willpower and strengthen yours over time, and this is supported by a cornucopia of recent and sound science.

A failure of willpower is not a failure of moral character, why do I even have to say that?


All of this poignant reminiscing reminds me of action buttons, aka Tim Rogers, latest review on YouTube. If you like games he puts out some of the best content around. If you aren't, skip to part five of the review to hear the part that this reminded me of.

Part five is a wonderful video essay on memory, nostalgia and regret. Tim is also in a unique position to talk about this as he has a condition where he never forgets anything. It's really a fascinating video.

Also general shout out to action button, all the videos are fantastic.

Link to the video: https://youtu.be/779coR-XPTw


The lack of capitalization made me sprint through the text. I wonder if anyone else had this experience. I had to come up for air towards the end. Even after I realized I was doing it I couldn't slow down.


Forgive my ignorance, what is a vintage fund?


The year the fund started (e.g. a 2022 vintage fund is a fund that started in 2022) https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/vintage_year.asp


I an idiot who isn't confident. Check mate!


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