These guys are just as prone to bandwagon and herd mentality as those in Venture Capital. When they're all saying the same thing I feel it's the best time to do the opposite of what they say.
Biotech is hot in general and as the article says, the ones around Harvard were doing well. So investing 5m in one is not crazy. I'm sure he merely expected single or double digits return.
He got lucky to be an investor in one that hit it big. Stories are also about spectacular winners or losers. There are no story on all the investor that got normal returns last year.
This sounds like propaganda looking to provoke NK leadership. No super secret coup is having articles posted on msn about them...or you know they'd all be dead...
There is nothing in that article or that individuals opinions supporting such a claim with any form of evidence whatsoever. This is the sort of loose claim you can recall later on and regardless of what sort of recovery we see, still be able to tell everyone that you were right.
A recession is already guaranteed as it by definition is 2 consecutive quarters of contractionary gdp. Q1 and Q2 will both see negative growth. The real question here is when it will bottom and how quick the bounce back will be. So far the means of production have not been affected in manner that will permanently reduce their productivity. However the longer this healthcare crisis goes on the more likely that is to change. Right now it looks very likely that we are able to get people back to work fairly soon, especially now that testing capacity is ramping up so that resources are more efficiently allocated to mitigate the spread and mortality rate of this disease. Note this does not require a cure, but rather a rate of infection that does not overwhelm our healthcare systems, which is near term very solvable.
Look up some Harvard Business Review Case Studies [1] to get some real world examples. Studying high level thoery out of books is pretty worthless IMO. Industries are very specialized and specific. This is really a field that is very difficult to learn without real world experience in it.
