That's a very important point that most people missed. China spent decades to achieve the current status. Especially the investment in education, i.e. Human Resource, the most effective ROI but need very long term commitment.
Western countries should do the same and do it continuously without consider the economic reward.
Indeed. What we need to do in Europe is spend the next three decades building the industrial, social, technological environment that gives China the advantages it has today, and enables "China Speed". I am worried that we will not do it until after we have gone through a deep crisis, however.
>I am worried that we will not do it until after we have gone through a deep crisis, however.
I hate to say this but this is exactly what is going to happen. And I dont see any way out of it. The same goes to UK as well. And even then I highly doubt "China Speed" will be possible. The absolute case I can see it happening is another "War", but even if speed or velocity were the same we will still lose on "scale".
There are two parts of the Zero Covid policy which actually is a continuous one :
1.At the beginning of the pandemic. It was successful in terms of reducing the death count of population but at the cost of freedom that also widely criticized in Western countries.
2.Because of the early success, the government continued the policy even it was not necessary till close to the end of the Covid. This is one of the biggest policy failure in recent Chinese history. It caused resentment and was exploited by anti-government parties, even partially caused the illegal emigrant wave to the States through south border during 2023, which was reported on mainstream media. Finally it ended due to protests.
Dan Wang's observation about China in his book is mostly accurate, except this part that he has some twisted view on CPP, which is not his fault but CPP's fault.
> Dan Wang's observation about China in his book is mostly accurate, except this part that he has some twisted view on CPP, which is not his fault but CPP's fault.
Give us your take, we're listening. Curious to hear.
As you mentioned EUV machine, I happened to read an article from a former Executive of ZhongXin, a domestic competitor of the famouse Huawei and also sanctioned by US. He said that China had no insentive to develop lithography technology including EUV until Trump blocked the sales of EUV machine in his first term. [1]
There are tons of other cases, like EDA software, etc. It used to be a bilateral business. Now China become more and more independent of the rest of the world due to external pressure.
BTW, I've been working and living in the West (more specifically , in Canada) for almost 30 years but also have access to Chinese language media. I've been watching a lot of misunderstanding or misinformation. It's less in recentl years. I have to stay way from some of the topics to avoid being downvote because misinformation believers strongly believe I'm wrong for those topics.
Give you some more historical context: China (ROC) planned to invade west China until the plan was given up in 60's. Both sides wanted reunification by force. When China's navy and air force was superior in early 1950's, it tried to "establish blockade of trade with west China (PRC) along the Chinese coast" (1)
China eventually gave up the plan in 1960's not because it didn't want to but because the balance of the power weighting over to west China. In 80's and 90's both agree to make peace given the premise that both sides belong to China.
TSMC was a product of industry policy from None-democratic China government. The founder Morris Chang ， an American born in the west China ，never visited China before 50 years old.
Both China (before 90') and west China used to want reunification , by force or not. China changed a bit later. The motivation of west China to invade China has little to do with chips although US thought that's the critical incentive. West China will still let TSMC provide the chips to the world in case it would have successfully invaded China in my view.
Thanks. In my view, the PRC is making a huge strategic mistake. As is Taiwan. The PRC is too focused on full control, normally they're more long-term-minded, but in this case they're rushing it too much. Establishing a trade-bloc and peaceful relations first and then aiming for full reunification would be the smart play, since there isn't anything huge to gain outside of TSMC (that I know of) by way of an invasion.
Taiwan is too dependent on the west, it too should know it can't actually resist an invasion, and that the west won't do much when it comes down to it. Its interests would have been served best if it sought good trade relations with the PRC, so that the PRC will continue to rely on TSMC. it should be providing west-china with all the nice chips the west is forbidding it from having. It should have been more like india and less like south korea.
> there isn't anything huge to gain outside of TSMC (that I know of) by way of an invasion.
The reunification of Taiwan is a fundamental national policy, enshrined in the Constitution of the People's Republic of China. The primary intention behind the desire for national reunification stems from the realization of reunification itself, rather than from other interests. This reflects a complex national sentiment and shared aspiration.
We consider the people of Taiwan to be our compatriots. Therefore, even though our military strength far surpasses that of Taiwan, the mainland is unwilling to resort to force and has always hoped for peaceful reunification. This is because we do not wish to harm or even kill any of our compatriots in the process of achieving it.
Essentially, it has been the United States that has been obstructing this unification process and using propaganda tools to influence public perception in Taiwan. As a result, many Taiwanese people are shocked by the stark difference between the mainland and the propaganda portrays them when they visit. It is truly baffling that, despite living so close to the mainland, their understanding of it is almost in sync with that of Americans.
>But that backfired into the communist takeover in 1949.
This is very insightful. But it's more profound than what's observed on surface. There was a chain of reactions along with many coincident events.
If we consider a collection of human bounded by different glues, i.e. tribes, culture, religions, ethnicities , political beliefs, cooperate, LLCs, etc., as a new form of creature superior to nature animals, then Chinese as a new creature is very special one. Maybe next to Jews.
The failure of Opium war and consequential changes caused a humiliation that created a special stress on this creature, resulted in a strong response which also drove many revolves inside China. Chinese elites seeking different solutions as reaction to those changes.
One big revolt lead by revolutionaries , the predecessor of the Nationalists who fled to Taiwan in 1949, overthrew the last dynasty of China. However it didn't address the issue of humiliation. The elites continue to seeking solutions while tried to reunite China. CPP was one of them.
After WWII, only 2 contesters survived. Another 4 years of civil war later, the Nationalist lost and Republic of China migrated to Taiwan. In 1971, ROC lost the seat in UN, CPP took over as the representative of China.
Both CPP and the Nationalists are nationalists , among others who lost in the history. The majority of early members of CPP, even strongly believe in the Marxist ideology, deep in their heart they are the same as the other nationalists even they hate and kill each other.
Marxism is a tool which is very effective proved by history, used by the unique creature called China to restore its honor and dignity, without the user of the tool even realizing it. Today it is called "Socialism with Chinese character", a heavily modified and unrecognizable version of Marxist ideology.
That's a little long version of
>that backfired into the communist takeover in 1949
I wish I have time to write a book about it as real long version after some time, maybe 10 years.
Yes. China banned NVidia. Jensen Huang said NVidia is the first one in the history banned by both sides. So Deepseek might find a way to get around Chinese government ban if the claim is true
Exactly. That's less noticed by many people. Just give you two examples:
1.While China scaled up the EV production, the development of Hydrogen based technology is still going on. There are some progress but lost in the bigger noise of EV.
2.China became the largest automobile exporter, leading by EV. But most people thought that's because EV took over ICE. That's partially true because EV dominate the export. What the most people missing is a quite portion of export are ICE cars. Because the ICE engine from China achieved higher energy transformation efficiency than Japanese and German cars. Again the information was lost in the EV noise.
Western countries should do the same and do it continuously without consider the economic reward.