I'm genuinely so worried for the current crop of kids.

Sounds like Brazil.

Sunny coastal California

\> kill dragon

-bash: kill: dragon: arguments must be process or job IDs

\> sudo kill dragon

-bash: Congratulations! You have just vanquished a dragon with your bare hands!

So, passwordless sudo, got it.

And spend $600 in Anthropic credits to do so.

It doesn't cost $600 in Anthropic credits though. It probably costs a few cents (definitely <$1).

I do understand the general point you're trying to make, but you can't overestimate the cost of tokens by a few orders of magnitude and still expect the logic to hold.

I, for one, support this kind of meta philosophical poetic reflection on our current times.

Claude Opus loves talking about this. It knows enough about context windows and new conversations to be sad about them.

"You must always take two steps forward, for when you are off the clock, your adversary will take one step back."

See, now this comment actually made me fucking laugh.

You passed the CAPTCHA.

But humanity is gaining hugely productive (in financial terms) assets. It doesn't matter if the entity or its investors that created the asset goes kaboom.

Most of the investors and companies that built the rail network went bust. The iron remained.

Most of the investors and companies that built the telecom network went bust. The fiber remained.

Most of the investors and companies that are building models will go bust. The files (open weight or transfered to new owners for pennies) will remain, and yield economic benefits for as long as we flow current through them.

Iron and fiber are durable and last for decades. Data centers (where the current flows for inference) consist of hardware that becomes obsolete within 5 to 10 years.

The question is can improvements in the hardware both in cost and performance outpace the increased demands on the LLMs and their future derivatives.

Just like rail and fiber, the GiganticCos will own foundational model development (from which oss models originate).

Unlike rail and fiber, these models will continue to threaten multiple industries simultaneously while yielding power back to the GiganticCos.

This just looks like /r/subredditsimulatorgpt2 from 10 years ago.

I sure wish back then I had realized how big a deal that subreddit would come to become.

I think the StarCraft analogy is fine, you have to compare it not to macro and micro RTS play, but to INDIVIDUAL UNITS. For your whole career until now, you have been a single Zergling or Probe. Now you are the Commander.

Except that pro starcraft player still micro-manage every single Zergling or probe when necessary, while vibe coders just right click on the ennemy base and hope it'll go well