It reminds me of my days looking at biotech stocks. You'd have a small company stake their whole financial future on the outcome of a clinical trial, to know whether their drug works or not. Leading up to the release of the results, the price would veer this way or that based on tidbits cleaned from doctors involved in the trials or whatever, but the stock would mostly be in a superposition of the two universes, one where it succeeds and one where it fails (or more mundanely: the probability weighted average of the price that the stock would be in each one). Then the results would come out and the universes would collapse to the "works" or "doesn't work" one and the stock would jump 30% or crater 50% or whatever.
I haven't been following this gold and silver saga, but it feels like a similar situation where there were two possible Fed appointees who would have vastly different impacts on the price of the metals. Then the announcement comes and the price found the world where that was the nominee and not the other guy.
They're saying that the volume of the silver market is such that "tiktok influencers" and their followers (i.e. "retail" traders, not institutional investors or mega corporations hedging their supply chain) are insignificant in affecting the price. This is not a situation like bankrupt Gamestop.
I'm seeing the 30% price drop, e.g., here: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/silver.volu..., which shows a volume of 300k contracts, where each contract is 5,000 ounces of silver, for a notional value of more than $100 BILLION dollars. Now, that much money didn't necessarily change hands but tiktokers and their followers are not going to realistically move the needle there still.
Ah, my bad, you are right. LA is not the capital of California. Thanks for the correction, appreciate it!
But I guess the relevance of my point still stands.
Rich regions need to do better at water management. They cannot simply keep crying wolf (whining about droughtsand water scarcity), when their bad water-infrastructure planning and bad practices (e.g., watering big laws during severe droughts) are exacerbating the problems.
From what I can gather online, Florida seems to have double the desalinatiom plants than California. So definitely, California can do a lot better at civic infrastructure, especially for water management.
I'm kind of surprised there's so many nuclear power companies. I remember Google signed a deal a year or so ago [0] with a different one (Kairos). I wonder why they're not in this deal? Is it all connections and funny money? Or do any of these have real shots at making something useful?
I was thinking how the dotcom bust left a lot of dark fiber infrastructure which helped the internet take off after that. It would be great if the upcoming AI bust (if it happens) leaves a bunch of power generation and new nuclear tech behind.
The dark fiber analogy doesn't quite work though, because unused fiber just sits there harmlessly. Nuclear plants have massive decommissioning costs ($280M-600M+ per plant), ongoing waste storage requirements, and if the companies go bust, taxpayers are likely on the hook. The EU alone is underfunded by €118 billion on decommissioning. Meanwhile batteries and solar keep getting cheaper every year without the “who pays to clean this up in 50 years” problem. Seems like a very roundabout way to hope for public benefit.
with small companies it's like with startups - some might fail so maybe it's better to have more players. I still think this is strange - if they wanted nuclear - could have approached GE for some BWRX of ABWR or W-house & KHNP for some nice AP1000/alike units
Right. Meta wants big enough plants that an AP1000 or two would be the right size. They're known to work. There are four in operation, two in the US, and another dozen or so under construction.
Most of the small nuclear reactor startups hand-wave the failure modes and argue that they don't need the hulking big expensive containment building. NuScale claimed that.
They wanted multiple reactors sharing the same cooling pool. If they ever had a leak, the whole set of reactors would be contaminated, even without a meltdown.
If we look at the big reactor accidents so far, there's Chernobyl, with no containment building. There's Fukushima, with too small a containment unable to contain the pressure. And there's Three Mile Island, where a large, strong containment building contained a meltdown. Three Mile Island was an expensive disaster, but not hazardous outside the plant. That's the failure mode you want.
We might be better off at developing better techniques for welding thick sections to make hulking big, strong containment vessels. There's been progress with robotic welding of thick sections.[1]
> surprised there's so many nuclear power companies
This is actually American capitalism working at its finest.
Have you seen a video of a slime mold "solving" a maze? It reaches out in every direction with thin tendrils until it makes contact. (Then the game shifts.)
We have a sense, like a slime mold picking up on the "scent" of food, that there is energy. But there are lots of good hypotheses for how we get there. So we try them. Not exhaustively. But multiply. When someone demonstrates they've got it, the game will shift to consolidation and scaling.
How do you make these personal iOS apps? Do you have to release them to the App Store? What if you want a small handful of users (eg family members)? And does Android work similarly?
You can deploy from XCode to your iPhone, and it seems to behave like any other app when you do that. I do have a paid Apple developer account, and I think I read that if you don't then you have to re-sign the app every 7 days. If you wanted a small number of users then I don't think this would work. I think you could use TestFlight, which is Apple's method for distributing an unreleased version of an app, but I'm not sure what the review process would look like for that. Android would be much easier as long as you can still sideload APKs, you could just build the APK and send it to everyone to install. I read that there were some changes to sideloading APKs but I don't know the details.
In terms of actually making the app, I don't know Swift or iOS at all so it's all generated. Usual caveats, and I'm only running them on my own phone. I ask Claude (not code) to help me with the spec, I give it some bullet points and it asks a bunch of clarifying questions then gives me a spec. I put that in a new directory, fire up Claude and use the ralph-loop plugin (https://github.com/anthropics/claude-code/tree/main/plugins/...):
> /ralph-loop:ralph-loop "Implement the iOS app described in app-spec.md. You have access to xcode CLI tools. You should write tests and use them to verify your work. The task will be complete when the app is fully implemented, with all tests passing. Output <promise>COMPLETE</promise> when finished." --max-iterations 50 --completion-promise "COMPLETE"
Once it's done you can open the app in XCode, test it in a simulator, play with it and iterate a bit and then send it to your phone!
Editing to add because I can't edit the original post: I think the limiting factor here might be the concurrent sprites limit. It seems like if you're on pay-as-you-go then you can only have 3 running concurrently, and have to subscribe to get 10.
Time pressure is a crucial aspect of it, though. I think GP may be alluding to the alleged abuse of disability exceptions, allowing kids (who don't need it) to take longer.
I've been thinking the same. I'm actually building a little site that presents a textarea that you can type your comment into and it will track its changes over time (typing, editing, pasting, etc) and provide a little playback widget so someone can see the composition of the comment. The idea being you can include a link to the playback in your comment that you post here and someone can eyeball it and see if it looks like you really spent some time writing it, vs just pasting in LLM slop. Of course, a sophisticated agent could _simulate_ writing the comment, but I think it could still help in general.
My favorite code editor is where I write anything longer than a sentence or two, including this comment. Then I paste the result into its final destination. Given that I tend to heavily edit my writing, the muscle memory I've built up in that editor helps me focus more deeply on my writing. So I guess I'll look pretty suspicious? Let me add an em-dash — everyone knows that real humans don't use those. ;-)
I don't know why more school districts don't force this for essays. It's so straightforward with Google doc editing history too. And yeah, sure, you can get around it if you _really_ want quite trivially, but I imagine it would solve for 99% of students, and force them to actually engage with whatever AI-generated stuff they inevitably type by hand more than they were before.
One caveat, you might want to account for text that the writer deleted staying deleted/hidden. I'm not always the best at proofreading before submitting, but I'll often cut tangents I'm prone to ramble onto. Accidental pastes from other sources that are meant to stay private would be another issue if the history tracker grabs everything that goes into the text box.
I haven't been following this gold and silver saga, but it feels like a similar situation where there were two possible Fed appointees who would have vastly different impacts on the price of the metals. Then the announcement comes and the price found the world where that was the nominee and not the other guy.
reply