Or we could realise that they still have that lead, and they were limited in the US by US government policy that propped up Detroit for union/votes rather than economics/environment.
Meanwhile BYD had US money with a a friendly government enhancing it.
You shouldn’t be angry with Musk, you should be angry with Trump/Biden (ignore left/right they both let Asia take Battery and chip technology on their watch).
Not defending Elon, he’s clearly got some flaws, but Telsa’s expansion has been phenomenal, even with massive head winds against it, just look at Rivian, VW, Lucid, Ford, GM… or anyone if you want to talk about “squandering”.
> Or we could realise that they still have that lead, and they were limited in the US by US government policy that propped up Detroit for union/votes rather than economics/environment.
> You shouldn’t be angry with Musk, you should be angry with Trump/Biden (ignore left/right they both let Asia take Battery and chip technology on their watch).
I mean, you should be mad at both. But it started far before either of their presidencies. They just continued or amped up policies that came before them.
Biden might have tried to (weakly) reverse it in his term but it was far too late at that point. You could probably say the same for Trump in his second term if you are being charitable and steelmanning both.
It's not just presidents or even politicians though. It's the entire American corporate system and it even extends down into responsibility from regular citizens. We need wholesale change in how we do business and interact together as a society.
The rot might start from the top, but it certainly extends to the bottom. Think of how the average union UAW worker acted during their peak days vs. how a Chinese line worker acts today. We certainly are capable of doing good work, but not under the current cultural zeitgeist.
Also GM had to replace batteries in 142,000 Chevy Bolts & Volts due to fire risk, so I'm not sure that should count as an example of a successful use of non-cylindrical, non-LFP batteries.
Outweighed by the value of having to suffer with the moldy fruits of their own labor. That was the only way the Android Facebook app became usable as well.
To posit a scenario: I would expect General Motors to buy some Ford vehicles to test and play around with and use. There's always stuff to learn about what the competition has done (whether right, wrong, or indifferent).
But I also expect the parking lots used by employees at any GM design facility in the world to be mostly full of General Motors products, not Fords.
I'm only familiar with Ford production and distribution facilities. Those parking lots are broadly full of Fords, but that doesn't mean that it's like this across the board.
And I've parked in the lot of shame at a Ford plant, as an outsider, in my GMC work truck -- way over there.
It wasn't so bad. A bit of a hike to go back and get a tool or something, but it was at least paved...unlike the non-union lot I'm familiar with at a P&G facility, which is a gravel lot that takes crossing a busy road to get to, lacks the active security and visibility from the plant that the union lot has, and which is full of tall weeds. At P&G, I half-expect to come back and find my tires slashed.
Anyway, it wasn't barren over there in the not-Ford lot, but it wasn't nearly so populous as the Ford lot was. The Ford-only lot is bigger, and always relatively packed.
It was very clear to me that the lots (all of the lots, in aggregate) were mostly full of Fords.
To bring this all back 'round: It is clear to me that Ford employees broadly (>50%) drive Fords to work at that plant.
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It isn't clear to me at all that Google Pixel developers don't broadly drive iPhones. As far as I can tell, that status (which is meme-level in its age at this point) is true, and they aren't broadly making daily use of the systems they build.
(And I, for one, can't imagine spending 40 hours a week developing systems that I refuse to use. I have no appreciation for that level of apparent arrogance, and I hope to never be suaded to be that way. I'd like to think that I'd be better-motivated to improve the system than I would be to avoid using it and choose a competitor instead.
That doesn’t surprise me at all haha appreciate someone a little closer to the question answering it! I know it still counts anecdotal but I’ll take it
This is flabbergasting, how could such a large proportion of highly technical people willingly subject themselves to being shackled by iOS? They just happily put up with having one choice of browser, (outside Europe) no third party app stores, and being locked into the Apple ecosystem? I can't think of a single reason I would ever switch from an S22-25+U to an iPhone. I only went from 22U to 25U because my old one got smashed, otherwise the 22U would still be perfectly fine.
Because many of them just want to use their phone as a tool, not tinker with it.
Same way many professional airplane mechanics fly commercial rather than building their own plane. Just because your job is in tech doesn’t mean you have to be ultra-haxxor with every single device in your life.
I don't have my phone (a Pixel) because it frees me from shackles or anything like that. It's just a phone. I use the default everything. Works great. I imagine most people with iPhones are the same.
I feel like people dance around this a lot because idk it hurts nerd credibility or something. The fact is on a moment to moment basis, the iPhone is just a better experience generally. They also hold their value a lot longer. I consistently trade in my phone or sell it to other people for easily 80% of what I paid for it. Usually this is 3-4yrs out
Remember how long it took for Instagram to be functional on android phones?
I've tried them out and not a single thing about it was tangibly better IMO. They have no inherent merit above Android except that some see them as a status symbol (which is absurd as my S25U has a higher MSRP than most iPhone models)
Cameras, for starters. I’ve never seen another smart phone keep up with the quality color and texture of an iPhone’s photos/videos (videos in particular) since the 4s. Their color science is just better. We’ve intercut footage since the 7 or so with our work and frankly you’d be hard pressed to catch it wasn’t one of our nicer rigs unless we hold the shot for too long. we just can’t get other phone cameras to match footage with the same ease, especially when it comes to skin tones.
> An example of a cycle looks like "now add an Options tab that let's me customize the global hotkey" where I'm only an end-user
Which is a prompt that someone with experience would write. Your average, non-technical person isn't going to prompt something like that, they are going to say "make it so I can change the settings" or something else super vague and struggle. We all know how difficult it is to define software requirements.
Just because an LLM wrote the actual code doesn't mean your prompts weren't more effective because of your experience and expertise in building software.
Sit someone down in front of an LLM with zero development or UI experience at all and they will get very different results. Chances are they won't even specify "macOS menu bar app" in the prompt and the LLM will end up trying to make them a webapp.
Your vibe coding experience just proves my initial point, that these tools are useful for those who already have experience and can lean on that to craft effective prompts. Someone non-technical isn't going to make effective use of an LLM to make software.
The LLM prompt space is an ND space where you can start at any point, and then the LLM carves a path through the space for so many tokens using the instructions you provided, until it stops and asks for another direction. This frames LLM prompt coding as a sort of navigation task.
The problem is difficult because at every decision point, there's an infinite number of things you could say that could lead to better or worse results in the future.
Think of a robot going down the sidewalk. It controls itself autonomously, but it stops at every intersection and asks "where to next boss?" You can tell it either to cross the street, or drive directly into traffic, or do any number of other things that could cause it to get closer to its destination, further away, or even to obliterate itself.
In the concrete world, it's easy to direct this robot, and to direct it such that it avoids bad outcomes, and to see that it's achieving good outcomes -- it's physically getting closer to the destination.
But when prompting in an abstract sense, its hard to see where the robot is going unless you're an expert in that abstract field. As an expert, you know the right way to go is across the street. As a novice, you might tell the LLM to just drive into traffic, and it will happily oblige.
The other problem is feedback. When you direct the physical robot to drive into traffic, you witness its demise, its fate is catastrophic, and if you didn't realize it before, you'd see the danger then. The robot also becomes incapacitated, and it can't report falsely about its continued progress.
But in the abstract case, the LLM isn't obliterated, it continues to report on progress that isn't real, and as a non expert, you can't tell its been flattened into a pancake. The whole output chain is now completely and thoroughly off the rails, but you can't see the smoldering ruins of your navigation instructions because it's told you "Exactly, you're absolutely right!"
> The hype is all about "this tech will enable non-experts to do things they couldn't do before"
Are you saying that a prompt like "make a macOS weather app for me" and "make an options menu that lets me set my location" are only something an expert can do?
I need to know what you think their expertise is in.
But anyone didn't do it... you an expert in software development did it.
I would hazard a guess that your knowledge lead to better prompts, better approach... heck even understanding how to build a status bar menu on Mac OS is slightly expert knowledge.
You are illustrating the GP's point, not negating it.
> I would hazard a guess that your knowledge lead to better prompts, better approach... heck even understanding how to build a status bar menu on Mac OS is slightly expert knowledge.
You're imagining that I'm giving Claude technical advice, but that is the point I'm trying to make: I am not.
This is what "vibe-coding" tries to specify.
I am only giving Claude UX feedback from using the app it makes. "Add a dropdown that lets me change the girth".
Now, I do have a natural taste for UX as a software user, and through that I can drive Claude to make a pretty good app. But my software engineering skills are not utilized... except for that one time I told Claude to use an AGDT because I fancy them.
My mother wouldn't be able to do what you did. She wouldn't even know where to start despite using LLMs all the time. Half of my CS students wouldn't know where to start either. None of my freshman would. My grad students can do this but not all of them.
Your 20 years is assisting you in ways you don't know; you're so experienced you don't know what it means to be inexperienced anymore. Now, it's true you probably don't need 20 years to do what you did, but you need some experience. Its not that the task you posed to the LLM is trivial for everyone due to the LLM, its that its trivial for you because you have 20 years experience. For people with experience, the LLM makes moderate tasks trivial, hard tasks moderate, and impossible tasks technically doable.
For example, my MS students can vibe code a UI, but they can't vibe code a complete bytecode compiler. They can use AI to assist them, but it's not a trivial task at all, they will have to spend a lot of time on it, and if they don't have the background knowledge they will end up mired.
The person at the top of the thread only made a claim about "non-experts".
Your mom wouldn't vibe-code software that she wants not because she's not a software engineer, but because she doesn't engage with software as a user at the level where she cares to do that.
Consider these two vibe-coded examples of waybar apps in r/omarchy where the OP admits he has zero software experience:
That is a direct refutation of OP's claim. LLM enabled a non-expert to build something they couldn't before.
Unless you too think there exists a necessary expertise in coming up with these prompts:
- "I want a menubar app that shows me the current weather"
- "Now make it show weather in my current location"
- "Color the temperatures based on hot vs cold"
- "It's broken please find out why"
Is "menubar" too much expertise for you? I just asked claude "what is that bar at the top of my screen with all the icons" and it told me that it's macOS' menubar.
I didn't make clear I was responding to your question:
"Where do my 20 years of software dev experience fit into this except beyond imparting my aesthetic preferences?"
Anyway, I think you kind of unintentionally proved my point. These two examples are pretty trivial as far as software goes, and it enabled someone with a little technical experience to implement them where before they couldn't have.
They work well because:
a) the full implementation for these apps don't even fill up the AI context window. It's easy to keep the LLM on task.
b) it's a tutorial style-app that people often write as "babby's first UI widget", so there are thousands of examples of exactly this kind of thing online; therefore the LLM has little trouble summoning the correct code in its entirety.
But still, someone with zero technical experience is going to be immediately thwarted by the prompts you provided.
Take the first one "I want a menubar app that shows me the current weather".
ChatGPT response: "Nice — here's a ready-to-run macOS menubar app you can drop into Xcode..."
She's already out of her depth by word 11. You expect your mom to use Xcode? Mine certainly can't. Even I have trouble with Xcode and I use it for work. Almost every single word in that response would need to be explained to her, it might as well be a foreign language.
Now, the LLM could help explain it to her, and that's what's great about them. But by the time she knows enough to actually find the original response actionable, she would have gained... knowledge and experience enough to operate it just to the level of writing that particular weather app. Though having done that, it's still unreasonable to now believe she could then use the LLM to write a bytecode compiler, because other people who have a Ph.D. in CS can. The LLM doesn't level the playing field, it's still lopsided toward the Ph.D.s / senior devs with 20 years exp.
Given that there is very little interest in developing commons here on earth (especially new types of commons from whole cloth), the shape that "making uninhabitable planets habitable" would likely take is that of living in bubbles rather than some kind of broad-scale terraforming. This would intrinsically shape society towards top-down authoritarian control, rather than allowing for distributed individual liberty. In this light, Earth's bountiful distributed air, water, and wildlife should be viewed as a technological-society-bootstrapping resource similar to easily-accessible oil and coil stored energy deposits.
It's not "handwavy logic". It called reasoning based on heuristics developed from many observations (ie wisdom).
From what I've seen here now on Earth, large scale coordination of projects where the benefits end up mostly diffuse is effectively impossible, especially in the modern environment. Thus private ownership of scaled back projects, organized by corporate authoritarianism as we see for most businesses here now on earth.
Could we possibly have an Earth country/company developing open-space terraforming, investing with the idea they will develop owned colonies, but then a popular revolt throws off the authoritarian control and institutes distributed rights (ala the American Revolution) ? Sure, that's possible. But that also just seems unlikely to be given modern information systems facilitating large scale surveillance, sentiment control, and promoting singular authoritarian perspectives. Like we're currently in the process of rolling back those hard-won distributed rights here now on Earth ("slowly at first, then all at once").
your heuristics is "last 50 years of US history", and you've now applied that to "That's how the whole multi planetary blob of humanity will operate".
I think "handywavy logic" is now being generous.
What about widening your heuristics to consider all of human history and see how much more freedom, autonomy and large scale coordination we have in place compared to say... the dark ages, or earlier.
A mean not to go too deep into whataboutism… but at least they only persecute their own Muslims rather than picking random countries on a map and persecuting them.
I see your point but, they're really not selling much more than golf carts and drones. If they go all-out with selling their actual military hardware (which they have a large stockpile and production capacity of), it would be get much more difficult for Ukraine to keep up the balance without increasing support from the west.
It's really quite interesting to see China being labelled as imperialist mean while the western powers have been colonizing and meddling in all kinds of affairs for generations... (see Operation Northwoods as one example)
The entire point of being able to mention past mistakes is for future generations to be able to learn from them and avoid making the same mistakes. It seems, in recent times, that while this liberty is "afforded" to US/Europe, they're not able to use it effectively, if at all. Meanwhile, even though the Chinese might not be able to talk about their mistakes publicly, it seems evident from their progress and events that they have not forgotten them, and that it is in their minds, at the very least.
Edit: Not to mention, looking at how your current president is going after Canada just because of an ad, don't keep your hopes up on US citizens being able to "mention" things either.
I’ve actually thought a lot about this issue. My conclusion is that it’s not feasible. China has never been good at integrating other ethnicities and races. Even managing the 56 recognized ethnic groups within mainland China hasn’t gone very well; it has copied many mistakes from the Soviet Union, which has now led to a certain degree of backlash.
So I’ve always felt that China’s ambition extends only to Taiwan, and Taiwan is the endpoint. After all, the people on Taiwan are Chinese too, sharing the same culture and ethnicity. Another point that people might overlook is that China’s approach to incorporating outsiders is based on cultural identity rather than racial identity, which is the opposite of the U.S. In the U.S., you can come in, bring your own culture, help reshape American culture, and still become an American. In China, you can only be considered Chinese if you adopt Chinese culture.
Of course, sometimes we discuss online hypotheticals like whether it would be good for China to annex Mongolia or Myanmar. From a purely military perspective, it would be very easy for China. But almost no one supports it, because our way of thinking dictates that it would require an enormous cost to transform those populations into Chinese culture, and that cost is simply not worth it. Trade and cooperation are the best approach.
The most charitable interpretation I can think of, if OP didn't misuse the word, would be, the generic "China bad" narrative being applied to things like equating the Belt and Road (loans, infrastructure projects) to centuries of old-fashioned exploitation of Africa. After all, it takes one to know one.
It’s not that hard to find examples. Chinese incursions in the south China sea and the development of artificial islands to project power and control over the region. Their plans for Taiwan. The annexation of Tibet. Xinjiang ethnic cleansing. Erosion of democratic freedoms in Hong Kong SAR. And yes the entire Belt and Road initiative which is basically loan sharking.
No. That list shows coercive or authoritarian behavior, not classical imperialism.
Imperialism means establishing colonies or directly ruling foreign territories for economic extraction. China today doesn’t occupy or govern other sovereign states. The South China Sea, Hong Kong, Tibet, Xinjiang, and Taiwan are all disputes within--except Taiwan + the South China Sea--undisputed national boundaries.[1] Belt and Road loans, while allegedly predatory, are contractual and do not create colonial rule. So it’s perhaps aggressive nationalism and coercive influence, but not imperialism.
1. Yes, looking way back, the occupying Qing dynasty established said boundaries through quite a lot of imperialism about a century before the US got busy manifesting its destiny.*
Tibet was a self governing entity until Chinese invasion. Though China would disagree. Tibet's leaders are still in exile and one of the key issues of China with India.
If the argument is that Tibet was not a country, then the same applies to Taiwan. Taiwan is not internationally recognized as a country, except for a few nations.
Autonomy is not sovereignty. Tibet wasn’t “invaded” like a foreign country, it had been de facto autonomous after the chaotic Qing collapse, but no one recognized it as sovereign. If I were to guess at China's narrative, the PLA’s 1950 entry is probably seen as a reconsolidation of territory long claimed by China, not new imperial conquest. And Taiwan’s status only survived because US intervention froze the Chinese civil war’s outcome, not because it was ever outside China’s historical frame. Again, indeed, Qing imperialist actions 300 years ago led to the current map, and you might see me as pedantic here but calling China (or modern US/Japan/Britain for that matter) imperialist might feel satisfying, but analytically it dampens the real and harmful empire-building sense of the term used in history.
I think one issue is when do we start drawing the line that an autonomous entity is recognized as a sovereign country. Do we start with the UN? Because before nation states formed, it was a bit ambiguous. British empire's colonies were not a formally recognized countries in the modern sense. But we do agree that British were imperialistic.
To be fair China challenging white people rule is kinda bad if you are white.
I suppose us Westerners can now kinda feel how the Ming must have felt in the 19th century?
They're plainly trying to expand their territory in Taiwan and the South China Sea. Building invasion barges that can only be used for invading Taiwan, harassing Phillipine ships. It's not subtle.
If you flicked the switch and made voting mandatory. Then you'd find the extreme views on both sides would vanish as everyone would rush to please the middle (the VAST majority of the population).
You can't make statements like "you got out voted" when you actually mean "a few more people from your side turned out and voted, but actually likely the majority of the population doesn't agree with you".
You could argue that apathy is a vote in and of itself, but then you aren't a representative democracy.
Meanwhile BYD had US money with a a friendly government enhancing it.
You shouldn’t be angry with Musk, you should be angry with Trump/Biden (ignore left/right they both let Asia take Battery and chip technology on their watch).
Not defending Elon, he’s clearly got some flaws, but Telsa’s expansion has been phenomenal, even with massive head winds against it, just look at Rivian, VW, Lucid, Ford, GM… or anyone if you want to talk about “squandering”.
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