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The reality is that the chance that an individual can convert being significantly smarter than the rest of their generation into becoming the largest shareholder in a de facto monopoly in a particular tech space is negligible. Whereas the chance of converting being significantly better at basketball than the rest of their generation into becoming a multimillionaire basketball star (with or without well-planned endorsements) is extremely high, with only injuries and attitude problems to hold them back.

If you're a young LeBron James (or Usain Bolt or Lionel Messi) your chances of becoming a multimillionaire owe very little to where you start and who you meet. Talent in sport is very efficiently identified, promoted and developed. You can't expect the same probability of outstanding success from a young person with the same personal characteristics as Mark Zuckerberg.

Startup founders are rolling the dice with Taylor Swift and the musicians. Massive talent coupled with attitude helps a fair bit, and above average talent is a basic requirement. But the sharpest minds have no reason to expect they'll make it to the top, and not everyone that makes it to the top owes it to "genius"



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