That's really not very far away. Few young healthy people are going to develop cancer or something nasty and expensive like that in the next three and a half years.
What percentage of healthy young people get in car accidents that require them to pay large medical bills, excluding those that are paid by the other driver's insurance? I doubt it's a very large percentage. The fact that something happens "all the time" in a nation of 300 million does not mean that it's likely to happen to you.
Wait until you're older. While most young people don't have catastrophic things happen. But enough do that I have no idea how many apparently healthy young people I personally know who have contracted cancer, been in accidents, or otherwise had sudden very large costs.
Let me give a few. A motorcycle accident broke an arm, and the other person left with no insurance information (my brother's arm is recovered). A propane accident lead to burns over 30% of his body (my brother-in-law Abe survived with significant scarring, but it was touch and go for a while). Hodgkin's lymphoma (killed Mark). A stumble leaving a Halloween part lead to falling with the corner of the step hitting her backbone (Ardith is partially paralyzed + has other health problems). Cancer of the small intestine lead to major surgery and months of chemo (Euna looks like she will survive). A brain cyst lead to balance problems and could have been lethal had it not been for expensive brain surgery (I know 2 women this happened to, both are nicely recovered but one had to never have kids). A jump on a dirt bike went wrong when there proved to be a mine shaft on the other side of the hill he jumped over (Matt is now paraplegic). Oh, and then we have depression leading to suicide attempts (I knew multiple people who succeeded).
Then there is the chronic stuff. I know multiple people with diabetes, several more with Chrohn's disease. Severe allergies are common and can be expensive. Schizophrenia hits 1% of the population.
These are just some of the people I personally know that stuff happened to. Most (luckily) were covered by someone's insurance. But not all.
Yes, you can roll the dice and play roulette. Yes, young people feel immortal. But stuff goes wrong often enough that you're highly advised not to if you have a choice. If you pay attention and live a while, you too will collect a nasty list of sad examples.
Most of the things you mentioned, you could see coming quickly enough that you can get on insurance if they can't deny you because of preexisting conditions. You'll be able to get insurance after your get cancer come 2014. The exceptions are the ones involving car wrecks, falls, etc, where you don't have time to fill out paperwork before racking up a huge bill. Even those can do no worse than bankrupt you, and immortal 25 year olds are usually also broke 25 year olds.
Not that it's a good thing to go bankrupt, but you're talking about a low single digit chance of an unfortunate but not disastrous event vs thousands of dollars a year. Contrast to the old system where you were liable to go bankrupt AND not get coverage at all with no insurance (for example, see the immigrants who can't get dialysis who were in the press in the last year).
Most of the things you mentioned, you could see coming quickly enough that you can get on insurance if they can't deny you because of preexisting conditions. You'll be able to get insurance after your get cancer come 2014. The exceptions are the ones involving car wrecks, falls, etc, where you don't have time to fill out paperwork before racking up a huge bill. Even those can do no worse than bankrupt you, and immortal 25 year olds are usually also broke 25 year olds.
Not true. First of all most of the things I mentioned were fast accidents that gave you no warning. So your most is wrong. But it gets worse than that. I listed no less than 4 people with cancer. Let's go through them and see what difference insurance made.
Mark woke up, was not feeling well, then wound up in the ER that night. Without insurance his family would have been financially hosed. (He wound up dead within a year anyways.)
Euna brought up stomach trouble at a routine doctor's visit, the doctor followed up, discovered an aggressive cancer at a fairly early stage. (This was incredibly lucky for her, if the cancer had been located a few inches farther away there would have been no symptoms at all.) Without insurance she would not have had a regular doctor's visit, would be less likely to catch it in time, and she'd have probably died.
The two with the brain cysts went to the doctor after developing severe balance problems. Not having insurance would have meant living through that while going through several weeks of paperwork. What is worse the condition they both had is one where if you stand up and bend over you can drop dead instantly. So without insurance a few nasty weeks with instant death quite likely.
So the likely cost for the cancer cases if you didn't have insurance? Instant bankruptcy, likely death, possible death, and possible death.
Now that may be bad luck, but those are just a list of people who came to mind for me in a few minutes of thinking. YMMV but that is not a risk I particularly desire to go through.
Not having insurance is not the same as not getting checkups. It means paying for them out of pocket, but for a healthy young person that shouldn't be too expensive. Before the health care bill passed, there were already places like Hello Health popping up that catered to the uninsured. There will be more of them if people decide insurance isn't worth buying.
It also doesn't mean not getting treatment, because if you have something like a brain cyst, the ER can't turn you away.
I also don't see why your friend's family would be financially hosed, assuming he's over 18.
Q: How much would it cost to insure against such catastrophic outcomes (with a $100 deductible and coverage enough for all hospital bills and recuperation)?
A: About $20 per month per person.
You're right this is the biggest risk young people face... the rest of their premium is just going to the old folks and their exploiters.
