Land is valued according to the surrounding economic activity. Land on average is not valuable (just look down the next time you're on an airplane).
Land in fast-growing cities goes up in value quickly. Land in dying cities goes down in value. Investing in land (and any associated cash-producing activities like buildings) is primarily a bet on the outlook for economic activity in the surrounding area.
Long term farm prices is a poor proxy for real estate investing generally.
My thoughts exactly. If someone is looking to make decent returns with real estate, farms and rural properties are not where they'd likely be focusing. I live in Vancouver,Canada where real estate returns have been substantial. It completely depends on market dynamics.
I'd argue that Vancouver is exactly the sort of place where OP's market dynamics have broken down.
The real estate market in Vancouver no longer at all - even remotely - represents the present or future expected economic activity in the surrounding area.
One of the core issues with real estate is that in an ideal state they are priced to reflect their surrounding conditions, many (if not most) have had their prices divorced from any foundational economic growth expectations. Real estate becomes priced on a benchmark of other real estate, not underlying industrial or commercial activity.
If Vancouver's real estate pricing reflected the surrounding economy there should be much cause for celebration - per capita income should be rising by several hundred percent, and the city's economy would be growing by double-digit percentages annually for some time to come!
Yes, that is true - the prices make no sense from a local perspective. However, I heard a keynote by an economist/urban planner, who suggested Vancouver needs to be considered within a global context rather than a local one since it is a very desirable city internationally, and draws buyers from all over the world.
Land in fast-growing cities goes up in value quickly. Land in dying cities goes down in value. Investing in land (and any associated cash-producing activities like buildings) is primarily a bet on the outlook for economic activity in the surrounding area.
Long term farm prices is a poor proxy for real estate investing generally.