The problem is fairly simple. The actual output of society is produced by a relatively small minority of skilled individuals that are not easily replicable (ie fungibility is largely a myth).
We need those people to work a full week operating the machines that actually make all the output we all consume.
But why should they do that if nobody else is working? They could just make enough for the small set of people that are actually required to make enough stuff and stop work on Tuesday - having the rest of the week off.
So we all give up full weeks of our finite lives in solidarity with those who we need to give up full weeks of their finite lives if we're actually going to get the goods and services we need to live. And that's because we're a species that tallies our debts with each other - the reciprocity principle (https://www.en.uni-muenchen.de/news/newsarchiv/2016/paulus_s...)
Or to put it in other words, sharing out the needed work is rather more difficult in practice than it is in theory where fungibility is largely assumed. And the more advanced our technology, the harder the sharing becomes and the more difficult it is to maintain the illusion of sufficient reciprocity.
> The actual output of society is produced by a relatively small minority of skilled individuals that are not easily replicable
This speaks personally to me as why tech workers (and multi-generation urbanites) are seen as widely disconnected: being persuaded a small number of people "create value" while forgetting about the people building your stuff, growing your food, extracting your oil (and killing the planet in the process), moving your stuff around, nursing people, building your house, installing your AC, shipping your amazon packages, and all the other ultra-necessary jobs (that are usually underpaid) that I don't even realise exist.
Without the drivers, Uber does not exist. Without Foxconn and its army of underpaid labor, Apple does not exist. It's not a small number of people creating value, it's a small number of people capturing all that value thanks to shitty wages and work conditions for everyone else.
We can all pretend "automation" will replace people, but it's obvious the complexities of those tasks will always mostly done by humans.
You might be reading the comment slightly sideways. My read was that the people you list are from small businesses creating value, and most of the tech workers are creating very little value with a few peakers who do amazing things.
> Without the drivers, Uber does not exist.
Personal bugbear, there is as yet no evidence that Uber is creating more value than it destroys. It has a pretty basic business model, trivial positive externalities and is making loss. It looks like it is slow-burning value until someone goes broke.
Uber could be cited as evidence in favour of the idea that most people don't by default know how to create value.
That might be the core disagreement here. There are a lot of people doing activities that are useful. I struggle to think of them as value creators because what they are actually doing is whatever someone tells them - there is a lack of agency in deciding what they do, so I have difficulty attributing outcomes to them. They are fungible, but the people telling them what to do are not. If you tell them to do something stupid, they will do it (as seen with Uber).
Not a comment on personal worth; economic value isn't everything. But the people who make decisions are just more important than laborers. Small businesspeople in particular are a backbone of society in a way that most workers really are not.
> That might be the core disagreement here. There are a lot of people doing activities that are useful. I struggle to think of them as value creators because what they are actually doing is whatever someone tells them - there is a lack of agency in deciding what they do, so I have difficulty attributing outcomes to them. They are fungible, but the people telling them what to do are not. If you tell them to do something stupid, they will do it (as seen with Uber).
I think this speaks to your own lack of understanding of these jobs. Just because the general goal is set by someone higher up, does not mean that there is not hidden variation for the exact task, as well as a lot of places for 'hidden mediocrity'.
Take cleaning the toilets, for example. The general order given is "clean the toilets". Think, however, about how this task has to be broken down. The small things like cleaning the tap heads, under the rim of the seat, etc. that most people might not explicitly think of without being reminded. The person has to do those small tasks, possibly hundreds of times, while dealing with any unexpected obstacles.
Or take something less unsavory, like baking bread. Anyone who has baked bread understands that, while the general instructions _sound_ simple, there is a lot of complexity that is not accounted for, and a lot of room for variability of skill.
Sure, anyone can train for a month and play X tune on the guitar, but are you going to pay for someone who has spent simply one month training, or someone who can really play the tune that has been playing for years? If they are interchangeable then there needn't be thousands of threads submitted to hacker news about how to hire "10x developers".
> Small businesspeople in particular are a backbone of society in a way that most workers really are not.
The matter of fact is that once a company has been established, it can float for a long time without the business owner contributing much whatsoever. I can think of more than a couple of companies that have changed CEOs three times in the last 5 years, while the actual inputs and outputs of the company remain steady. Direction only matters in a vague sense until you hit bad economic times. The ultimate truth is that 'fungibility' has nothing to do with 'value'.
I clean trains (includes lots of toilets) the hilarious story to share is that long long ago one would just show up at the trainstation and be hired to clean by annother cleaner. Paid in cash every friday. Over time a truly insane number of madly overpaid deskjokeys was tagged onto the process to do countless completely nonsensical tasks. From a really well paid job and really good cleaning, in 70 years, things moved to really shit pay and half the employees. The work didnt change at all but everything is measured to the detail. Apparently the combination of shit pay and more work than one can do makes employees unreliable enough to justify tons of desk work. The hr and countless job agencies are completely overworked. The measurment of bad results triggers countless meetings. The ppl making work schedules are tasked with a completely and utterly impossible mission. But it gets truly hilarious where the cleaners bring new employees into the 3rd party job agencies, when we dont like it change the work schedule and carefully compare salaries with hours worked. So nothing has really changed at all. The only new thing is that for every 1000 euro in actual cleaning there is now 2500 euro in administrative tasks.
the appearance of disconnect thatfrenchguy is talking about is the idea that designing the mold is the actual output of society despite the fact that designing the mold no matter how few people can do it is completely useless without a massive web of interconnected labor that, yes anyone can do but, must done in order for society to actually output anything.
It's not a swipe at engineers, it's a swipe at engineers who think they few highly skilled individuals are the engine of the world.
That is point. The wheels, the engine, the frame, hundreds of other things... You can't point to one part a car and say "that's the bit that actually gets us from point a to point b"
(It's also a jab at the intellectual bankruptcy of Atlas Shrugged)
Oh, Sorry. It's a really shaky rhetorical flourish if you don't instinctively associate "the engine of the world" with Atlas Shrugged, Galts Gulch and the criticisms thereof.
In plainer English: it's not a swipe at engineers, it's a swipe at engineers who think they few highly skilled individuals produce the majority of the economic output of the world.
So if you get a degree, it’s really the book publishers, librarians, and coal burning electricity plant that kept the lights on who deserve most of the credit?
Their contribution was necessary, I mean it's utterly facile but: you weren't gonna get a degree from a university if the university doesn't exist. There's a billion or so people in addition to them and a few billion more that got us to this point.
It's not that there is no such thing as individual achievement it's that there is no "small minority" skilled or unskilled that the modern economy can be reduced to.
And there exists unskilled necessary work that armies of skilled workers can not replace.
But even beyond that there's armies of skilled necessary work that skilled workers can not replace either but seem to forget exist.
Apple doesn't exist without massive sophisticated logistical support but no one ever points out that the naval architects at Maersk or the welders at their shipyards are one piece of the process that allows any one to actually buy anything from Apple.
It would also be nice to frame "necessary" and "unnecessary".
I would think developments like saving the environment, healthcare research, improving public transportation, energy consumption, etc. are all "necessary" work. Building Uber or Twitter or Facebook? I'd lean more towards "unnecessary".
HackerNews is so close to arriving at the conclusion that most jobs (including their own prized "skilled" engineering) are worthless outside of capital accumulation. :)
> And there exists unskilled necessary work that armies of skilled workers can not replace.
I think this is false. Unskilled work is easy to teach and learn, by definition. All you need is an "army" and the unskilled work can be easily fulfilled.
Nobody is arguing that unskilled laborers are incapable. We are saying that they are by definition unskilled. These skills are slow to teach and learn. Having lots of people willing to perform skilled jobs is not enough - they need the skills. The same is not true about unskilled work. Hence the comment about armies of people being able to perform unskilled labor.
I just like physical labor. I could be in some open floor plan trying to write code in some langulag designed by an unsophisticated person over the weekend while interupted by slack nonsense and by a manager who cant tie his own shoes. One coworker is an accountant and annother is an industrial designer. Im incredibly fit and my brain is reserved for private use only.
The dichotomy doesn't have to be perfect to be useful. There are certainly people who are incapable of anything else - and the US military has also pretty consistent in their statements that there are many people who are incapable of anything useful (in the military).
Much, if not most, of "unskilled" work also has a lot of hidden complexity that means your productivity starts off slow and improves over time.
There's a reason capitalists have gotten us to think of some work as "unskilled," and that's so they can pay those people far less than they should be, and no one raises a stink about it.
The farm worker is an obvious example of "unskilled" labor, but if you watch a video of what these people do minute by minute, hour after hour, for the entire harvest, they are absolutely being underpaid by criminal amounts.
Yet, because we've been convinced it's "unskilled" labor, hardly anyone cares.
Unless you hold some capital, you are paid according to how much your work is valued and how much of it can be supplied, not how hard your work is. They are unskilled in the sense that many other people can perform their job after some training. In aggregate the work of farming is highly valuable, but many individuals who partake in such work aren't specifically so and can be replaced easily even if their work is in fact difficult in itself.
An established rapper could be paid millions for a single mumbled line on a single song but that happens because he can export his value to millions of people who have in interest in it, whereas the ditch-digger can only rely on his labor and what it can provide in his current location.
You say hardly anyone cares, but are you willing to pay extra for the items and services that are produced by farmers and other workers? Perhaps you are, but in reality that is the stopping block that makes people stop caring, and it does have a certain cold logic to it.
I'm impressed you are willing to address a serious point deeply embedded in my downvoted comment.
You are correct - the market will match labor supply with demand. Note that this also cuts both ways - sometimes the market at the "top end" of labor is also constrained. Just because someone is highly skilled does not guarantee a high salary.
Haha, you've nicely described how things work but didnt provide any sane justification for it. But ok, ill play along. How much extra are we talking about? I've just cleaned trains for about 50 000 travelers with 4 people. In my previous job we bake half a million boxes of cookies with 8 people. Farmers however, they feed truly insane numbers. If we charge you 1 cent extra for things you wouldnt complaint about it. Lets see, that would be 50000 cent extra, 500 euro split 4 was. Shit, that would double my salary!
But dont worry about it. I get that you are just that cheap. (Joking)
I'd say saving money is one of the sanest justifications in the insane world we live in.
We are talking about aggregates here. I would have to pay not just you, but tens of thousands of other people that extra cent. Farmers, cleaners, attendants, cashiers, literally any of those professions that play a part in modern life. I guess I could pay only you, but it would hardly be a sane justification, would it?
Again, the problem is that your profession is valuable in aggregate but each individual has very little negotiating power. Unfortunately, if you want to double your salary, you'll have to enter a profession whose members each have a better bargaining position.
Its not about me but about the system as a whole of course. Likewise, it isn't about you. You are not the one paying for everything, we all do. If we optimize for lack of purchase power there will only be economy of scale for necessities.
It just struck me that we might be that we are missing the most important part of the topic.
You are not just saving whole cents left and right but in the process you will also be required to emotionally detach yourself. On the large scale the choice is really between engineering empathy vs psychopathy. If we minimize cost and maximize what people have to pay we cant be all to concerned with peoples well being.
I've had lots of other jobs, I can easily earn twice what I get now. I just one day had the rather silly realization that doing a lot of cycling to improve my shape is a lot of work. Its not work like a job, you have to push yourself until you cant do any more if you want to make progress. It seemed odd to do work without getting paid. It clearly is possible to be both productive and physically active.
You can imagine what it looks like, without a money driven thought process I do 2 times the work one could expect from an employee. You would think it is enough but that is not how the system works. There are other employees who are suppose to get more work out of me, they have no idea about the work, are really unfit and earn a lot more. My effort doesn't make cleaning cheaper or result in better cleaning. They just scale down the number of workers, get larger bonuses and the owners of the company make more money. With 2/3 already going towards the bureaucracy the 1 cent extra is really a joke.
For the people in those jobs to feel productive they have to emotionally detach themselves. I have to buy cheap products made by wage slaves who are probably much worse of, they might not be able to sustain themselves. I'm similarly forced to not overthink it.
Its not impossible for the animals I eat to see some daylight. Its not that if we abolish child labor or slavery the economy collapses. People are just making a lot of money telling that story or they need to tell themselves that in order to cope with the system.
If you can spend 1 euro extra and double a hundred peoples salary the money is the least of your concern.
Some people like to do more repeatable tasks while others like to do more creative tasks and others don't want to do any tasks at all. We are told that one is better or more required than the other. If we can make a society where people can do what they want to while continuing to have a decent life (whatever "decent" means), its all good.
If you're talking about software development, it's not hard to learn.
You can teach someone unskilled to be a developer in around 6-12 months. Within a year or two they will be working unsupervised to a professional level.
You don't need university for it. You don't need a degree. Anyone can learn it. It's not magic, it just takes time.
>forgetting about the people building your stuff, growing your food, extracting your oil (and killing the planet in the process), moving your stuff around, nursing people, building your house, installing your AC, shipping your amazon packages,
What do you mean "forgetting"? I pay those people for their services out of the money I earn. They're not doing all those things out of the goodness of their hearts, they working for the same reason I'm working, for a paycheck.
>and all the other ultra-necessary jobs (that are usually underpaid)
Their pay, just like my pay, is set by the market. If you don't think that's fair, your issue is with capitalism. I'm actually open to the idea of moving away from capitalism, but very few people, especially in the US, are, and I have no expectation that will change in my lifetime.
I would say, to be pedantic, that your pay isn't set by the market "really," because of market distortions of all kinds.
Like doctors are highly paid for a number of reasons one of which is cause the APA restricts the number of doctors that can be trained, but also because of the nature of the finance of healthcare in America, and the cost of training doctors. None of those is determined purely based on the market really.
A distorted market is still a market. Considering there has never in history been a market completely free of distortion due to authority figures, I don't see the distinction you're making.
A distorted market is still a market. Considering there has never in history been a market completely free of distortion due to authority figures, I don't see the distinction you're making.
> Their pay, just like my pay, is set by the market. If you don't think that's fair, your issue is with capitalism. I'm actually open to the idea of moving away from capitalism, but very few people, especially in the US, are, and I have no expectation that will change in my lifetime.
No, the pay of people that you pay is set by you, not by capitalism. If you think some people that provide you services deserve more pay, what is stopping you from paying them extra?
That is a good point, however, I generally don't know what percent of what I'm paying is going to the employee who's providing the service to me, so I usually can't make that determination.
Unfortunately with how the world works it requires some level of slave-like population to operate.
Noone really likes to talk about that because that hits our morality itch, but thats how it is. Without slavery-like labour, our society would collapse.
Yes! I wish people would take a better look at history and recognize that _throughout_ history we've had the ruling class make claims about the structure and survival of society and invariably those claims require the status quo of oppressed people.
Shorter work days and society will collapse. No slavery and society will collapse. Providing worker's rights and society will collapse. We find a way to survive because... the majority of people _are_ workers.
The only thing that collapses when we get rid of a slave population is the capitalist's free lunch.
Surpluses and shortages of skilled labor are very unevenly distributed. Differences in ease of automation will magnify this. If there is a demand for 100 neurosurgeons and then cut everyone's hours by 20%, you effectively created a shortage of 25 neurosurgeons. Decreasing hours doesn't increase supply and supply of highly skilled labor is not fungible i.e. you can't trivially retrain a PhD in electrical engineering or truck driver to become a neurosurgeon.
This leads to the following conundrum:
If we forcibly cut hours for everyone across the board then it will create severe supply shortages for the most highly skilled labor that is most difficult to automate, some of which already have severe shortages because it is so difficult to create supply. If we cut hours such that labor supply is proportional to demand then the most highly skilled labor that is most difficult to automate will be required to work by far the most hours, which isn't fair to highly skilled labor and creates a disincentive for required labor.
Systematically reducing working hours may benefit the majority but it creates perverse social and economic dynamics for the highly skilled minority whose labor society can't easily replace.
We already forcibly cut doctors hours by giving them inefficient education and excessive paperwork. A doctor working 3 days a week in an efficient system could spend more time with patients in a lifetime than the average US doctor does.
The US labor market only really has shortages by design.
I agree that some labor shortages are the product of artificial restriction. But I strongly disagree that all labor shortages in the US have this property. Some labor shortages are unambiguously intrinsic and very difficult to eliminate. Sometimes there simply aren't enough people with deep expertise necessarily acquired over several years to meet demand.
Take my specialty for example. I mostly work on operational multi-modal spatial and sensor analytics at extremely large scales and high velocities (as is typical for these data models). Right now, half the Fortune 500 are trying to hire people that know how to design these systems and throwing silly money at anyone that seems like they can. There is no open source software that can do it and half the required computer science is not in literature, it is an extremely deep technical specialty that takes years of experience to learn. There are, maybe, a half-dozen people in the world right now that know how to design these systems end-to-end from first principles and likely a demand for several hundred. There is no way to manufacture that supply on a time horizon that matters to anyone that wants to hire them.
Even one level lower, high-end systems engineering talent demand is at least an order of magnitude higher than the actual supply. This requires very deep experience to be competent that you can't learn in bootcamp or six months of on-the-job training. Yet despite being paid extremely well even by software engineering standards, as an industry we don't come remotely close to producing enough of them. In fairness, it takes serious devotion to craft and no small amount of talent to become high-end systems engineer -- but few people with the raw talent have that ambition or interest, even though it pays extremely well. You can't force people to do what they have no interest in doing.
6 months may not be enough to train up someone without a technical background, but when a skill shortage extends beyond the time horizon of training a pool of 100’s of thousands of people up it’s very much self inflicted as the company simply does not want to pay market rate + training.
PS: People with related skills can always pick up these deep specialty skills with extreme speeds. I have seen someone paid contractor rates to learn a extreme specialty. Including that training, he actually finished the project in less time than the original team had wasted.
There are many deep specialties that no one picks up with "extreme speed" no matter how technical they are, certainly not to the level required by companies that want to hire these skills. Think database kernel engineering or non-trivial parallel systems design. Acquiring these skills happens almost exclusively by apprenticing for years with real experts. In six months you could go from no skills to mediocre skills with a lot of training, but no one wants "mediocre" working on their database kernel for good reason.
It would be like me assuming that I, a broadly competent technical expert, could quickly and easily develop a deep expertise in e.g. high-performance graphics engines. A diagnosis of Dunning-Kruger would not be incorrect were I to make such an assertion.
Look into it’s history and Walt Disney has been training animators for decades. It’s a deep skill that is takes significant time to master, so you need an actual pipeline.
Continuing the idea, NASA trains astronauts. They don’t need very many world wide, but they need a few and the only way to get them is to train these people.
I could go on, but outside of a months to few years for absolutely new fields shortages are by design.
> The problem is fairly simple. The actual output of society is produced by a relatively small minority of skilled individuals that are not easily replicable (ie fungibility is largely a myth).
This is an HN conceit that’s not actually true. Take something like health care. It takes a large number of individuals to produce health care services, and technology hasn’t really reduced that amount. The other day, I needed to schedule an appointment for my son, to follow up about his ear infection. I called the nice lady at reception who set everything up. I could’ve used an app, but that’s like saying you don’t need chefs because you could just eat grass. You can, but you don’t want to. Likewise, dealing with a computer to do something like this is an exercise in self abuse. And computers haven’t gotten any better at interacting with a human at the human’s level in decades. (On that front, I think self check out machines are similar. There is a reason Whole Foods mostly has regular cashiers. It’s because computers haven’t automated away the cashiers job, they just make it possible for customers to save a few cents by doing the job themselves.)
Likewise with pretty much everything else. In the legal field, secretaries have universally been downsized to cut costs. The result is just reduces efficiency, where $700/hour lawyers waste their time doing something a secretary should be doing. (Computers have done precious little to actually eliminate any of that work.)
> The actual output of society is produced by a relatively small minority of skilled individuals that are not easily replicable (ie fungibility is largely a myth)
That's a very arrogant and elitist attitude. I wish Galt's Gulch actually existed and we could exile elitists there. Let's see how they do without all the lower castes in society who pick their fruit, clean their toilets, cook and serve their food, take care of their children, pick up their garbage, and have to smile at them in order to have the honor of serving them.
Gold is more expensive than water because gold is rare. But no one would choose a world with plentiful gold and no water. Gold is not worth more, it is just priced higher by market dynamics.
Putting a value on one's work by the price the market gives it, and then justifying the market as the arbiter of value by the total price of work it incents people to do is amazingly circular.
The Israeli Army is mostly made out of 18 year old people who get drafted for 3 years, reserves that come for a few weeks a month, and a small percent of career employees.
Many of those people fullfil complex
, Critical roles, successfully.
But most of it's "employees" are easily replaceable.
A draft does not guarantee efficiency or efficacy of work. The Korean military has a monopoly on labor of a certain age (and gender), any roles it needs will of course be filled, but from experience the arrangement is rather far from peak human output.
I can tell you that I gave my best during my 5 years at the IDF solely because I knew how well I would be paid afterwards if I did well, and I got directly hired at a FAANG. I can say the same about almost anyone I've known during my service across all programming units and beyond. Even the ones who knew they would stay did it for the chance to become Lt. Colonel and then director afterwards as a civilian. As for the ones claiming to be motivated by patriotism, they too usually ended up pursuing more lucrative venues.
As for IDF jobs with less potential, they are usually accomplished by people with fewer ambitions doing much less than their best and placed there because of that (think of military HR, secretaries, nurses, cleaners).
In short, there are no surprises. The Israeli military service is just a minor inconvenience in the path of ambition that is fueled by the capitalist spirit of the general economy, rather than being a replacement for it.
Enjoying the work and similar motivations: This tends to only apply to certain jobs. In addition, just because I'm intrinsically motivated to work on programming, for example, that doesn't mean that I'm motivated to program the things that society wants me to.
A sense of duty: I think this motivation tends to have limitations and is likely hard to achieve consistently without propaganda, nationalism, or a state religion.
Social status: Call me cynical, but I think this only works if someone can use their social status to get the things they want; in which case it doesn't seem that different from capitalism.
The problem is fairly simple. The actual output of society is produced by a relatively small minority of skilled individuals that are not easily replicable (ie fungibility is largely a myth).
Or, perhaps those people could be rewarded in proportion to the value they deliver compared to others. You could then choose to live simply (but with life's essentials), working less, or alternatively you could work hard to obtain prestige and money.
You could say that our society works that way now, but there are innumerable pressures at work (many of them created by our public policy) that compel the less driven and the less capable to work ridiculous hours in "bullshit jobs" just to survive. It isn't necessary to compel less-skilled or less-interested people to work full-time just so that neurosurgeons will go to work. The people at the top of the skill pyramid get there because (a) they want to be seen as "the best" and (b) they want access to the money, power, and/or social prestige that comes with their chosen profession.
So many jobs are either not necessary or could be done in 1/4 the time. Our allocation of labor is massively inefficient, and it can't be just because we are afraid of making hard workers unhappy.
I am not really sure I understand what you are trying to say. 40 is not a magic number. Just like we once standardised workweek to be 40 hours, we can now (re)standardise it to be 32, or 16. Why not.
I've been working 4 days a week or less for more then 5 years already. No problems.
This is very interesting way to view it, but in my office there's a few people who do literally nothing and honestly I would like work more if they didn't have to be there.
I didn't truly understand how powerfully demotivating bad coworkers can be until I actually experienced them.
Good coworkers are encouraged and inspired when you do great work, or create automation that saves time and do more. Bad coworkers get jealous and feel threatened. if you're the kind of person who generally like to avoid conflict (most geeks fit this category), that alone is a powerful de-motivator .
Unproductive people must do pointless work or the productive people will be unhappy. But conversely, the productive people are paid less than the value they create, to keep the unproductive people happy. Why didn't Norman Borlaug die the richest man alive? Most people have never even heard of him. It's human instinct that only people of great social status are allowed great wealth. Obviously the CEO has to be paid more than the engineers, because the CEO has mastered the (zero sum) social status game. They were lucky enough to be born tall, attractive, well connected, sociopathic, intelligent, etc., and exploited their natural advantages. According to common sense this makes them a better and more deserving person.
There's an obvious positive sum trade: the useless people get to slack off (e.g. living on UBI), and in exchange the useful are paid commensurate with the value the produce. The useful are happy because they're fabulously rich, and the useless are happy because they're not the ones working so hard. The only real losers are the social status masters, and social status is positional, so they'll always be a small minority.
Unfortunately that small minority controls the cultural narrative. They can reinforce the natural human tendency to zero-sum thinking, and they can hold out the false hope that the useless can become successful parasites too. Everybody is born equal, so if you're not rich it must be because you didn't work hard enough! It's easy to fall for it when your brain is hard-wired with the just-world fallacy.
This combination of cognitive biases and active manipulation means I don't expect to see any improvement before environmental collapse renders the whole thing moot. The 1% rule and everybody else is either overworked or underpaid. You'd have to think like an economist to even see the possibility of escape, and who wants to do that?
"and in exchange the useful are paid commensurate with the value the produce. "
The trouble with that is that there is a fallacy of composition there. The only thing you can have in that system is more money. You can't have more stuff because by definition there is no more stuff being added to the pubic value pool.
And if you have more money, but the same amount of stuff, then all that happens is prices go up. Unless you believe more people than now value money for its own sake.
Trying to hide a transfer using a money illusion only works for so long. Then people work out they are being fiddled and have the system shut down politically. Which is historically what has happened in every single case it has been tried.
Alms to the poor is resented not just by those forced to provide the alms but by the poor themselves who resent being patronised and seen as useless.
Such systems are generally put forward by those who believe they can value signal to their peers by being the ones handling out the alms.
> The actual output of society is produced by a relatively small minority of skilled individuals that are not easily replicable
C'mon man, that's not even remotely true. Even taking the outlier; google, $360,000 revenue generated per employee. Big deal; I'm pretty sure a decent accounting firm creates more value per employee.
I didn't read it as Google employees are productive while $othercorp employees are not. Even within google, things like Price's Law apply. Essentially half of all productivity is accomplished by the square root of the workers. So if Google has 10k developers. 100 of those developers are producing half of the value. The other 9,900 work together to produce the other half.
I used the example of Google because it is a particularly productive company on a per-employee basis for a large company in a way that can be measured. Not that I think Google is awesome: I think they should be broken up, and its employees should consider their life choices that they continue to work for the Great Satan. FWIIW they have more like 100,000 employees.
The older I get, the less I believe in crap like Price's law. It sure seems like this in large and old organizations, but I can never point to the actually productive people. Some people appear to do nothing in a large group, but the group then falls apart when they leave/retire. In smaller groups, it definitely, trivially doesn't work like this.
We are not in a static equilibrium. I don't think anyone believes we have reached an ideal state of technology where we don't need to progress any further. People who are not producing things that are immediately useful can be working to improve processes for building things, inventing new things, doing basic research, and supporting people who do that.
There's also the issue that the population is constantly growing and in flux in different areas. Nobody knows the exact right amount of stuff to make to serve everybody and underestimating can have dire consequences and get lots of people killed, so we can and should make more than might be necessary.
It's a huge oversimplification to say we just need 100 units of food so get the 5 people to make 20 units of food each and then we're good, no need for anyone else to work.
> But why should they do that if nobody else is working? They could just make enough for the small set of people that are actually required to make enough stuff and stop work on Tuesday - having the rest of the week off.
Reward for the extra day worked? If top performers are rewarded more than everyone else and working the extra day or two is optional,everyone else can opt to not work the rewardless extra day while top performers opt to work a full week for the reward.
It's much like competitive shift jobs for waiters, the good performers get the hard well tipping shifts.
What about the slave laborers in foreign nations who produce raw materials and manufactured goods for the products consumed here in the U.S.? Surely they do the majority of the work?
No they don't. According to Amnesty International there's about 40million slaves in the world, which sounds like a lot until you realize that's only about 1% of the world's workforce. The reason they are slaves is not to make things cheaper forthe rest of us but because they live in corrupt societies that allow it. The amount of slaves in a country is highly correlated with that country's placement on the WBO's global corruption index.
The WBO's global corruption index surely fails to take into account inter-national corruption. That corrupt resource extraction requires people outside the country interested in purchasing the outputs.
That majority of work only accounts for a small portion of value on the margin. You could reduce that work quite a bit with very little overall effect. In fact, this could even increase total product since the unskilled do tend to be heavily liquidity- and risk-constrained, so freeing up some time and effort on their part (without the stress of involuntary unemployment!) would significantly incent them to do such things as retraining, starting businesses, entering formal education etc. etc. This is a major argument for UBI, in fact - which would work a lot better than cutting working time across the board by fiat!
"That majority of work only accounts for a small portion of value on the margin."
No, the surpluses yielded by consumers and profits by companies of those people 'doing the work' is vast.
If they stopped doing it it would be a nightmare.
We don't need resto servers to get English degrees, and then what, exactly? We need someone to do the resto serving.
If they 'start their own business', like 'a restaurant' ... well then they're still going to need servers!
If anything, wages could be increased for that cohort. Surely there's some opportunity for automation, but even then we still need people to do the work.
We all like the idea of 'education' and that everyone should have an opportunity for it, but there's simply quite a bit of work to be done, we should think about how to make it work better for everyone.
> we should think about how to make it work better for everyone
This is one of the strongest arguments that I can see in favor of more lenient immigration, specifically to larger countries like US and Canada.
The number of low-skilled laborers content with the current level of pay will keep decreasing, rendering businesses unsustainable. However, for whatever reasons, other countries are better at producing low skilled labor content with those wages. If they are so willing, they should be able to immigrate, allowing the more educated and more skilled native to work in more creative, leadership capacity. Purely from the monetary perspective, natives should see the immigrants as a win-win.
However, when Immigrants cultures or skin colors are seen as being different and not worthy of being assimilated into the country, cultural reasons influence the reasoning strongly.
In eras of low unemployment, yes, America can take in highly skilled migrants.
But in almost all eras (low and high employment) the import of unskilled workers into the US is probably bad. There are already tons of workers on the black market causing pricing weirdness and downward pressure on wages.
I think it's a primary driver of inequality. Recent interview on FT with direct of the Fed indicated for the first time in a long time, US companies are starting to actually 'train people', i.e. they will do this if necessary.
Some jobs Americans will do with the right wages and conditions. For those jobs Americans truly will not do - put them in other, cheaper countries, and let the surpluses go to those areas and villages, helping those people. It's much more fair that way, and more 'good' is created overall.
Isn't that argument even stronger for allowing the higher-skilled to immigrate? They give you a lot more bang for the same or lower effort spent on assimilation.
From the perspective of Native born Americans, no. Because these skilled workers would be competing for similar jobs.
However, it’s possible that the Skilled Immigrants + Native Born Americans create a synergy that works even better, so IDK. It seems hard to do thought experiments with this stuff.
Did you miss the part where I was talking about effects on the margin, not just an arbitrary global change like 'they "just" stop doing it'? If the volume of that work were to drop by, say, 1% in value, product might drop by 0.1%. Or maybe, the unskilled workers' wages might rise to compensate, and then the skilled worker would no longer be so "scarce" compared to the unskilled worker. And you're very much underestimating the plausible effects of education or training. Maybe we don't need resto servers to get English degrees, but they might want to study some culinary-, food science- or hospitality-related track, and become more productive at the job they're already doing.
"Vast oversupply"? Wage levels/compensating differentials say otherwise. Plenty of highly-skilled (even STEM) workers are non-engineers, and they get high wages.
I suspect there's price anchoring going on there. They don't actually need to pay such high wages. The unemployment rate amongst MBA people is over 30%.
This is exactly right, and I wish I could have put it as succinctly as you. I fear it will take longer than expected for society to adapt to this dynamic.
If market competition wasn't so aggressive, we could start to focus more on value creation. Right now the economy is all about capturing existing value, monopolizing markets to keep competitors out and using targeted advertising to divert people's attention away from real value. Journalism is in such bad shape that if an independent scientist invented a cure for cancer, most people probably wouldn't hear about it and that scientist would end up homeless. If there is no big money behind something, nobody cares!
Try starting an open source project these days; your chance of getting any traction is close to zero. Influencers are unlikely to help you to spread awareness of your project unless there is something in it for them financially; they're more likely to help promote an enterprise competitor who will pay them.
Journalism is dead, now everything we believe in is decided by so-called 'influencers' but these are typically the most shallow, superficial, scheming, manipulative individuals that have ever walked the face of the earth. These people wouldn't know how to tell the difference between real value and a steaming pile of shit. Most influencers are just idiots with rich friends.
Capital has replaced our values. We need to bring back real values like honesty, integrity, humility, experience, pursuit of knowledge, empathy, efficiency...
> Try starting an open source project these days; your chance of getting any traction is close to zero. Influencers are unlikely to help you to spread awareness of your project unless there is something in it for them financially; they're more likely to help promote an enterprise competitor who will pay them.
This is interesting. You're saying you would be giving away something valueable for free, and yet there would be no takers? Maybe it's not so valueable after all then? Stuff that is genuinely solving some yet unsolved pain or problem should, given time, take on its own, without influencers.
>> Stuff that is genuinely helpful and valueable and unique should, given time, take on its own, without influencers.
This is completely false. It depends entirely on your social network.
My main OSS project has over 5K stars on GitHub; it's used by thousands of companies and has been growing steadily but I'm certain that if it hadn't been on the front page of HN 5 years ago, nobody would be using it today. These days it accumulates more GitHub stars every day and I don't do any marketing at all. GitHub stars compound like dollars in a bank account. It got to this point because of HN. Being a useful product was just the prerequisite. There are plenty of potentially very useful products which no one will ever use because people are poorly informed.
Some niche projects are obviously useful, but there is a significant category of projects which are highly valuable but whose value is not immediately obvious; in these cases it can take years to build momentum and you NEED influencers to help you to get that once in a lifetime chance to make even a small impact in your industry.
Also, the opposite is true; there are projects that seem valuable at a glance and which can get a lot of attention (if promoted by the right influencers) but they are an anti-pattern and they provide negative value in the medium and long term.
I've seen many great projects go nowhere and I've seen really terrible projects become exceedingly popular.
The masses are not rational at all; most decisions are based on shared delusions. How many times in human history have huge amounts of people believed things that were proven to be completely false. Too many to count. There are many things that we believe today which will someday be proven to be false. Humanity has not gotten smarter over the past few decades, if anything, we've become complacent and as a result we've developed tunnel vision and have become dumber.
In other words, marketing is very important. I think as technical people we like to "evaluate things on merit," but the reality is that the technological complexity of our society has become such that it is virtually impossible for someone to gauge the quality of a product in a field where we're not an expert. That's part of why marketing takes on such importance.
Yes it is. It's just extremely frustrating that even though people are aware of how powerful marketing is, that no one seems to acknowledge its effects on themselves and on society.
Marketing doesn't create value, it redistributes existing value by creating an illusion of added value. The reality is that it takes value from a large number of small players and gives it to a few large players; and this has nothing to do with the true underlying value of the products.
> Capital has replaced our values. We need to bring back real values like honesty, integrity, humility, experience, pursuit of knowledge, empathy, efficiency...
“The individual, in our society, works for profit; but the social purpose of his work lies in the consumption of what he produces. It is this divorce between the individual and the social purpose of production that makes it so difficult for men to think clearly in a world in which profit-making is the incentive to industry. We think too much of production, and too little of consumption. One result is that we attach too little importance to enjoyment and simple happiness, and that we do not judge production by the pleasure that it gives to the consumer.”
I disagree. I think it largely depends on the work you do. If you are doing something you dont enjoy.or don't find meaningful, the work is just a means to an end. But for many people a job is something they derrive meaning from, many craftspeople have notions of pride in their work. I think probably the best example is people who work with the mentally handocapped, studies reveal they tend to be the happiest and most fulfilled, likely because they are getting that sense of fulfillment from their work.
I think the author is wrong about our work culture impaacting peoples need for work. I think people actually want to feel like they are contributing to society, like they are useful. The question to me isnt how do we create less work, its how do we make work more meaningful for people
I don't need a job to give my life meaning. Thanks, but I already have friends, family, hobbies, etc. It's the need to have a job to pay my bills, that reduces the time I can actually spend with my friends, family, hobbies, etc.
So, the current system gives meaning to some, and takes meaning from some. I'd have to see some math first, in order to believe it is actually a net benefit on average.
> many craftspeople have notions of pride in their work
Yeah, the job keeps me advancing at my craft; I think alone I would be doing similar things anyway, but probably more slowly. At the same time, the job often forces me to cut corners; alone I would prefer to do things properly, rather than hurry up towards a bullshit deadline only to fix things later when they start falling apart. Again, the pride is both given and taken.
> I think people actually want to feel like they are contributing to society, like they are useful.
But that's quite different from having a job. With more free time, I could contribute to society in ways that are not predictably profitable (which is why I am not doing as a source of income now), but would probably have more meaning that what I am doing now.
> how do we make work more meaningful for people
If you make it voluntary, at least the smart people will have freedom to optimize it towards more meaning. Maybe stupid people will need more guidance. If so, let there be some provided, but again, make it a bit more voluntary than "obey or starve".
There's a lot of work that could potentially be meaningful but isn't because it's done under bad conditions. A craftsperson who isn't able to put enough time into the thing they make because of the demands of their manager, for example. Or a person who works on an assembly line who doesn't feel like they "make" anything at all because they are responsible for only a small part of the final product and never get to see the whole thing come together. Part of the battle has to be a recognition that workers ought to have far more rights than they are currently thought to have. They ought to have the right to feel satisfaction in their work as much as possible.
I live in SF and I have been in and out of the tech industry, so I know the city from both perspectives. (I now work at one of the big tech companies.) So many people outside of the industry work more than one job. They need to. Wages are too low. That is the problem, wages. Focus on that, economists, so ordinary people can get by on one job's wages.
Wish there were more comments about this. Like you, I too worked in an industry that wasn’t technology (home repair services, carpenters, electricians and plumbers), and saw it for what it was.
It’s atrocious what some of these people are asked to do and the wages they’re expected to perform at.
But beyond that, even wages aren’t even the entire picture. I live in Chicago. I managed a fleet of workers who not only had to content with a company that paid laughable wages, workers were on their own for parking, vehicle maintenance, equipment and materials, ancillary costs of maintaining their tools.
End of the day the $25 we paid to our licensed and insured electrician translated to $12/hr coming home.
I fought for a year to get those fellas better pay. Our managing company was hearing none of it. The guy who ran the entire operation took home six figures. I know this because I saw the books.
I think the commenter was trying to ascertain just how deep the implied inequality was -- if the guy who ran the entire operation is barely clearing $100,000, then as far as I understand, in the context of San Francisco the owner is struggling as well -- that says something else about the economic situation of the company.
We know mainly why costs are too high in the Bay Area, and it's mostly housing. Which is a solvable problem, if only the market was able to expand housing supply.
Don't live in a place that you can't afford. If enough people moved away from SF to the Midwest then they'd live comfortably and local companies would have no choice but to increase wages to keep the rest around.
Are economists obsessed with job creation? Government economists tend to focus on it because that's literally their job, but my sense of academic economists has always been that they're pretty good at not eliding distinctions like between employment and economic value.
100% employment is possible. Just look at any U.S. military base. Without poverty, capitalists lose some of the leverage over the working class which makes the current levels of exploitation difficult to maintain without massive price hikes. I think the U.K. had an experience with mass employment that convinced capitalists to raise the prices of their goods just to maintain the exploitation which poverty allowed.
Sure, we once had an entire country with 300 million population, living like on a military base: barracks as residences, the same assortment available in department stores, symbolic salaries, some involuntary labor, and no freedom of movement. It was the USSR.
Not everyone liked this lifestyle. At least the personnel on military bases know when their contract ends, so they could return to life of freedom and opportunity.
Capitalists can't just raise the price of goods, unless they're in a cartel which is illegal in most of the western world. They'd be unable to coordinate thanks to competition. It's a double-edged sword, they can't coordinate to save the earth or uplift humanity, but they also can't coordinate to stamp down the proletariat.
Neat! Gray is the person who first pointed me towards anarchism (back in 1999, wow) as a political philosophy, after reading about his Sudbury Valley School and following a link to the Anarchist FAQ.
In principle from a capital stand point, it is always better to have one unemployed person and one over worked person who is terrified of becoming unemployed than two employed people. So reducing workload to increase employment rates is completely unacceptable to those who own society.
Wage presure from near full employment is also undesireable to them but must be considered the lesser of two evils and is fairly fudge-able by changing the definition of employed.
That's a pretty big claim you're making with nothing to back it up.
Do you think it's the "terror" that makes that situation prefferable from a "capital stand point"? In times of historically low unemployment, I hardly think the general populace is holding such terror. And even so, why would splitting the work reduce this terror?
Higher up in this thread is a suggestion that: 1) almost all productivity comes from a few workers and 2) it is impossible to reduce their work load and 3) employers retain low productivity workers for long hours to encourage them. All of these assumptions are highly dubious but the theory is popular because it appeals to comforting, entrenched ideas. Which is why no one notices that is a big claim with nothing backing it up.
> In principle from a capital stand point, it is always better to have one unemployed person and one over worked person who is terrified of becoming unemployed than two employed people.
It’s preferable to have more production, which could be one person working 60 hours or two working 30 hours. Sometimes due to lower switching and communication costs and returns to specialisation/learning by doing 60 hours will be more productive. Sometimes the costs are low and the returns to one person working more hours will be low and it won’t be. If there are fixed costs to employing a single worker this will militate against splitting up the work.
> So reducing workload to increase employment rates is completely unacceptable to those who own society.
Then the German system of Kurzarbeit[1] during economic downturns should be unworkable. It isn’t, it’s just difficult to coordinate.
> Wage presure from near full employment is also undesireable to them but must be considered the lesser of two evils and is fairly fudge-able by changing the definition of employed.
Changing definitions do not affect whether there are too many or too few workers for the production demanded. If there’s an increase in demand for labour some people will work more and some people will come out of unemployment as wages are bid up by the greater demand.
> In the 2008-9 recession, in response to falling orders, German firms reduced labour utilisation by cutting back work hours rather than by laying off workers. In fact, a whopping 90% of the drop in total labour inputs in the German economy in the Great Recession is to be explained by reduction of hours per worker ! This kind of “labour hoarding” does not normally happen during recessions in other countries, but did happen in Germany this time. This mini-miracle now has people on the centre-left all over the world seeking ways to replicate it in other countries, and has spawned a substantial literature.
> In Germany, firms face restrictions on sacking workers in the first place, but in case of economic difficulties, they can apply to the Federal Employment Agency (Bundesagentur für Arbeit) for “short time” or Kurzarbeit. (Not the same as the 35-hour work week made famous by France, which is a statutory definition of full-time work.) The application entails a protocol for reducing work hours per worker, with the request triggering a process of consultations between the BA, management and works councils inside firms. After an agreement, workers can receive unemployment compensation in proportion to the loss in working hours.
Less work is harder then it sounds because (in advanced economies) MOST jobs are skilled jobs, even the ones that don't seem that way, and developing skill takes time, skill, and practice. As others have noted, labor isn't nearly fungible as we often pretend, and two workers doing 20 hour schedules generally aren't as productive as one worker doing a 40 schedule. This shows up in the "part time penalty" for workers amongst other things, but should resonate with anyone who's had to onboard others to a team or project.
There is also obviously a point where more effort out of individual workers is counter productive (see Ford and the 40h work week), but it seems 32-40h weeks may be near optimum generally.
Outside of a autocratic, centralized economy I would wager that it's natural for an economy to "find new work" for labor. The fact that we have increased automation does not mean that the labor force should shrink along with it, it should mean that over generations people do new things. An office supply company in the 70s would bet big on fax machines, with the ubiquity of email a comparable company today might focus on ergonomic office supplies.
Because employers aren’t generally willing to pay the premium necessary to get workers to do that. In some fields they are and the workers do, e.g. law, investment banking, medicine.
That's the big problem. If you cut your work week down to 20 hours, it can be tough to get anything done at all. The amount of meetings is not going to decrease because (most) managers need to waste other people's time to feel important.
I suspect that has a lot to do with the structure of our society, and our relationship with work.
From TFA:
> In fact, quantitative studies revealed that the average adult hunter-gatherer spent about 20 hours a week at hunting and gathering, and a few hours more at other subsistence-related tasks such as making tools and preparing meals (for references, see Gray, 2009). Some of the rest of their waking time was spent resting, but most of it was spent at playful, enjoyable activities, such as making music, creating art, dancing, playing games, telling stories, chatting and joking with friends, and visiting friends and relatives in neighboring bands. Even hunting and gathering were not regarded as work; they were done enthusiastically, not begrudgingly. Because these activities were fun and were carried out with groups of friends, there were always plenty of people who wanted to hunt and gather, and because food was shared among the whole band, anyone who didn’t feel like hunting or gathering on any given day (or week or more) was not pressured to do so.
It's quite possible to like work. But that isn't really true in a lot of jobs. People who are overworked and underpaid; low-level bureaucrats; middle managers... there's a lot of thankless, unrewarding jobs out there, where people can't see a benefit to their work, where people see a negative impact of their work on society.
Because at the beginning they got an increase in food security for a small increase in hours worked. Then as time went on their population grew larger and they became better able to divide into agricultural, administrative and violence specialists and with their greater population and capacity for violence they expanded. The greater population and military prowess meant that in a competition with hunter gatherers for land and other resources the agriculturalists generally won. They couldn’t revert to hunter gathering without huge loss of life due to the loss of food and over time their population grew until they were near the carrying capacity of agriculture and sometimes overshot and died in famines or wars.
Agriculture is great for a small number of generations for everyone and then you can’t go back without mass death.
I hate to admit it, but my life just seems to be more productive and organized when I have a job eating up most of my time and forcing me to make the most out of what's left. I took a year off from work to start my own business..after about 2 weeks I was spending probably 95% of my time relaxing. I recently started a traditional job again and the amount of progress I'm making with ~2 hours of free time is greater than what it was when I had no job. It really gave me some respect for the willpower required to run your own business.
You're dealing with a mind virus, one that I'm familiar with myself: We feel like we need to spend our free time productively. I'm actively trying to get this out of my head. Not saying that I want to slack off, but I definitely need to slack off from time to time, and I struggle with allowing myself to do it.
> You're dealing with a mind virus, one that I'm familiar with myself: We feel like we need to spend our free time productively.
I'm undecided on whether I see that as a "mind virus" or just the right choice to maximize happiness in the long run. My impression is that spending my time doing unproductive things that I strongly enjoy (like videogames) is somewhat of a local maxima in terms of the happiness it can bring me. One day my favorite game servers will be shutting down, or scraping along with a small fraction of players as everyone's moved on to the next game, and I will have virtually nothing to show for all the time spent. In the best case I'll have a handful of memories that I enjoyed, in the worst case I'll have a deep regret that I spent my most capable years on something that is of no use to me anymore. Presumably by being productive I can avoid that regret, and I'll have skills, money, or creations will be useful to me for much longer. That's my theory of how sacrificing some happiness in the short term should make me much happier in the long term.
What then about skills or creations that society deems less useful? Think of the classic starving artist trope. All those underground artists who make little to no money.
This effect is particular prevalent in the US. As someone who moved here from the UK it was quite a cultural shock to realise that being "idle" was, for some reason, considered "bad".
Sometimes I think that decades of spending all our productive time in a 'work' setting make people feel like they like it, might be a basic psychological adaptation mechanism. In fact, being an able human and having months of time at my disposal is scary :)
There's so much other "work" that needs to get done that I could easily fill it up if I didn't have to be at work so much. As it is, I've put in 20 hours this weekend around the house and I've barely put a dent in my todo list; I've got to go back to work tomorrow to get some rest.
I don't think you are right about people not enjoying their work, in the US context at least. The vast majority of workers seem to have pretty high job satisfaction. In fact, a quick search shows concern when average nationwide job satisfaction drops below the mid 80%s, which seems phenomenal. (https://news.gallup.com/poll/147833/Job-Satisfaction-Struggl...)
As for wanting to work less, that's probably true, but I'll bet you could get that result for almost any question involving extensive time commitment- for example, I love my kids dearly and love spending time with them, but if grandma offers to watch them I'll take her up in a hot second.
The problem is how to incentivize companies to pay workers the same amount for less work. A lot of people, for example, the service industry, can't just work shorter shifts for the same pay. If your job is delivering a product then you can, and a lot of people do, work hard enough to deliver and then goof off for the remaining time.
Take a Starbucks employee: They get paid per hour worked, so if they want to work less, they need more money. Now Starbucks needs to pay more people more money to maintain the same hours. This circles back to the popular discussion of automation and UBI or whatever, where Starbucks now has robots and the employees don't exist anymore.
On another note, I'd rather work a job I don't enjoy than be unemployed, I've had periods of unemployment and they were pretty bad.
Raise the minimum wage while reducing the work week to 4 days for full time employment (this brings the minimum wage closer to where it should be after not being raised for decades, while also giving labor a share of the productivity gains they should’ve been receiving since the 70s).
You squeeze Capital with labor law and regulation. Any reduction in employment due to rising wages can be fixed with social support systems funded by corporate taxes that were previously tax breaks or deductions on automation expenses.
The wealth in the system exists to do this. It’s a distribution issue.
Technically true. But the minimum wage is still clearly an anchor. The amount above minimum is a signal of your worth as a worker. Consider this[1] income distribution chart (with its precipitous falloff left of the minimum wage mark). It's clear that "at or just above minimum" is the largest demographic, even if it represents a small fraction of the whole. If the minimum wage were raised, it wouldn't simply bunch the left of the graph together - the entire curve would move.
Of course the entire curve will move, but then inflation will just go up a similar amount. This means that everyone will effectively be making the same amount of money.
Because of this, I think minimum wage is unnecessary and just manages to distort the market and prices out some people out of any job whatsoever.
Yes, I even mentioned that in my comment, the problem is actually implementing the system. It's all well and good to say "UBI" but getting it past the lobbyists and through Congress is another thing. I'm trying to understand how we get there, not the end goal, since that's obvious.
A bunch of rich people want UBI for some reason. It's very simple unlike say healthcare so it is harder to stealthily undermine, which is the main tactic of unpopular lobbying. So it has probably more of a chance than other stuff at the same scale.
Economists are obsessed with job creation because the leading ones started their careers in the late 70s and early 80s when the number of jobs was shrinking, but the number of people who wanted a job was growing faster than ever.
We need those people to work a full week operating the machines that actually make all the output we all consume.
But why should they do that if nobody else is working? They could just make enough for the small set of people that are actually required to make enough stuff and stop work on Tuesday - having the rest of the week off.
So we all give up full weeks of our finite lives in solidarity with those who we need to give up full weeks of their finite lives if we're actually going to get the goods and services we need to live. And that's because we're a species that tallies our debts with each other - the reciprocity principle (https://www.en.uni-muenchen.de/news/newsarchiv/2016/paulus_s...)
Or to put it in other words, sharing out the needed work is rather more difficult in practice than it is in theory where fungibility is largely assumed. And the more advanced our technology, the harder the sharing becomes and the more difficult it is to maintain the illusion of sufficient reciprocity.