Are there many people who go to medium directly? I've only ever gone there because someone's linked to a post here or on Reddit. Which is something you could do for your own blog's post.
But seems like that recently has changed. Now the paywall-ed articles are shown more to people[1]. So even authors with large number of followers don't get their articles shown to their followers.
> It is hard to get your blog noticed.
I think if you write good content, and post it on good programming communities like HN or Reddit, I don't think its that hard to get it noticed.
If you want people to see what you write, and you aren't already famous, Medium will put your content in front of more people than a self-run blog.
That is Medium's real competitive edge. It is hard to get your blog noticed. If you want to beat Medium, you need to beat them at that.