Germany is NOT at a place where the lockdown is too strong. The spread is still growing exponentially and they will run into issues a few weeks from now if it continues at this rate.
You can’t keep everything open and then shut everything down once you’re at capacity, as it takes three weeks for lockdown measures to show up in the hospitalization rates.
Currently the R0 in Germany has gone below 1, according to some models.
I don't think the measures will be softened before May, but according to the authorities, the ICU capacity will not be overburdened. Stressed to the maximum, yes, but not (or not much) over capacity.
Another issue is that with an R0 this low there will be a much lower rate of immunity. Which in turn means the restrictions can't be lifted because then the whole mess starts up again.
> I don't think the measures will be softened before May, but according to the authorities, the ICU capacity will not be overburdened. Stressed to the maximum, yes, but not (or not much) over capacity.
Yes, sounds like Germany nailed it
> Another issue is that with an R0 this low there will be a much lower rate of immunity. Which in turn means the restrictions can't be lifted because then the whole mess starts up again.
Literally no way to avoid this if you want to avoid overrunning the hospitals
There will be a question of whether or not a slightly higher R0 would be beneficial.
It's clear that we can't hold this up until the vaccines are ready. The antibody studies will be crucial to determine how much immunity is there.
Ideally we would take back the restrictions when immunity has broadened enough. But that might take too long. I don't think this kind of shut down is sustainable for another two months.
You can’t keep everything open and then shut everything down once you’re at capacity, as it takes three weeks for lockdown measures to show up in the hospitalization rates.