Ask yourself: What drives the price increase? Are people buying because they expect to use Bitcoin? Or because they expect the price will go up?
If it's the latter, it's a self-reinforcing cycle: The price goes up because people buy. People buy because the price goes up.
So what happens when the popular narrative switches? What happens when the price goes down for years at a time and people watch their money dwindle? Will people wait around for the price to skyrocket again? Or will they see their friends getting rich in altcoins or meme stocks or NFT trading cards and sell their BTC to get in on the next hot trend?
The price did go down for about a couple years and here we are today. I think if anything people are more likely to buy the dips and see it as a buying opportunity rather than a reason to.
So what drives the increase in price? Many reasons. Because it's going up? Sure, that's accounts for some. It's a store of value against a government that printed 22% of all dollars ever created last year? Yeah. In a world that seems increasingly chaotic and unpredictable in places that always seemed stable it is attractive because it's a global store of value that can be tapped if you ever have to flee? Sure.
I think these are just a few reasons why it's going up in value. It's quite scarce and everyone knows the rules and no one controls it. Not a government, a corporation, or a person. So yeah, it can and probably will take hits but I think in the long run it's just a thing that makes a lot of sense to more and more people as part of a well diversified portfolio.
> It's a store of value against a government that printed 22% of all dollars ever created last year?
What asset isn't a store of value? Inflation, by definition, is when the price of something inflates. Bitcoin's price is inflating in dollar terms. Someone invested in stocks and real estate is protected from US dollar inflation.
The idea that Bitcoin is the only way to protect against inflation, or even that it's a good way to protect against inflation, is largely a narrative pressed by people who want you to buy more Bitcoin. That is, they want you to inflate Bitcoin via demand-pull inflation. Ironic, isn't it?
> is attractive because it's a global store of value that can be tapped if you ever have to flee?
You really think all those people buying and holding Bitcoin in their Coinbase and Robinhood accounts are doing so because they might flee the country?
Again, the narrative that Bitcoin is a mechanism for fleeing oppressive governments is largely a myth. If someone wanted to get their money out of a country, they don't need to invest in Bitcoin long-term. They just need to transfer in, cross the border, and transfer out.
Let's be honest: Most people are speculating.
> It's quite scarce
It was literally invented out of thin air by programming. The maximum number is finite, but it's ironic to declare a resource scarce when there are thousands of altcoins online, and even multiple forks of Bitcoin.
> I think in the long run it's just a thing that makes a lot of sense to more and more people as part of a well diversified portfolio.
Price goes up because other people buy it because price goes up...
Stocks and real estate are great. You should own that too. BTC is unique in that it is protected from government and corporate mismanagement. Real estate and stocks - not so much.
There’s so many good reasons BTC should be in your portfolio that I’d call it irresponsible to not own it at this point.
I do think there are some seriously sour grapes among those that thought they were too smart for it or something and they feel they’ve missed the train. But it’s real and it’s a revolution and people will end up owning BTC indirectly through ETF’s or other aggregate investments. I don’t really care though - maybe it’s just not for everyone.
Could be wrong but I haven’t been the last 8.5 years I’ve been invested as the vision and potential of it is so obvious to me. Of course if I had a dollar for every time I’ve read it’s a fad/tulips/useless/etc (I think the new one is it’s bad for the environment lol) I’d be doing just as well.
Having more speculators actually makes it more likely that the asset is fairly valued.
Speculators are the driving force which "correct" the price of overvalued or undervalued assets. More speculators mean that assets will reach their "fair price" more quickly. In this way speculators actually reduce volatility and make it harder to manipulate the market.
Keep in mind that speculators are not necessarily in long positions, they could also be shorting Bitcoin (which would be the logical thing to do if you believe there's a bubble).
If it's the latter, it's a self-reinforcing cycle: The price goes up because people buy. People buy because the price goes up.
So what happens when the popular narrative switches? What happens when the price goes down for years at a time and people watch their money dwindle? Will people wait around for the price to skyrocket again? Or will they see their friends getting rich in altcoins or meme stocks or NFT trading cards and sell their BTC to get in on the next hot trend?