Do we have any substantial change recently? Nothing, just news on the logistic backlogs, which ironically means we consume less fuel on shipping. Well. Speculation never makes sense.
Oil prices are coming out of depression phase that started in around 2015.
I know inflation is on everyone's mind now-a-days, but oil is still very cheap compared to even 10 years go. Prices have a ways to go up just to get back to non-inflation adjusted numbers from 10 years ago. And adjusted for inflation, $80/bbl is about average for the past 20 years.
Multiple trends combining to reach a tipping point, mainly decreased appetite for capital investment by the west, inflation expectations becoming increasingly embedded and pandemic destabilization constraining supply/strengthening opec.
It's hard to see the era of cheap oil making a sudden comeback in this environment so this speculation doesn't seem unreasonable, though may be a tad overeager since winter is coming.
