> It’s actually the opposite since the block reward goes down over time
See history of block reward in dollars[1]. This the miner's collective budget to find blocks.
It's about 350K USD per 10 minutes now, or 2.1M USD/hour. Pick an industrial electricity price, say 0.05 USD/kWh. That budget will then buy 42 GWh/hour, or 42 gigawatt of power continuously (roughly 2% of global power consumption). Of course, miners have other costs, and their growth is lagging this ceiling. But it gives you an idea.
That's why I think we're heading for overshoot, and future block reward halvings will come too late.
See history of block reward in dollars[1]. This the miner's collective budget to find blocks.
It's about 350K USD per 10 minutes now, or 2.1M USD/hour. Pick an industrial electricity price, say 0.05 USD/kWh. That budget will then buy 42 GWh/hour, or 42 gigawatt of power continuously (roughly 2% of global power consumption). Of course, miners have other costs, and their growth is lagging this ceiling. But it gives you an idea.
That's why I think we're heading for overshoot, and future block reward halvings will come too late.
[1] https://bitcoinvisuals.com/chain-block-reward