Never having been to a Disney establishment (no kids, no interest), what's the chance they'll go "oh, ok, it's old anyway..." and head on their way"?

They can't just abandon billions of dollars of infrastructure they've already created just nilly willy. Alot of it was bespoke to the park and the cost of recreation would be massive. It would also take at least a decade to replace what all currently exists in another state.

Climate plays a huge impact on where they could open a park. Weather where people want to be outside all year round (and when it gets to where people dont want to be its because its too hot which means you can easily control what people buy to get hydrated and where they go to get cool) is only gonna really available in Florida.

It would take a massive amount of money to relocate Disney World even if they could find a site that was suitable. Not just buying a new site, but they would have to decommission the old site, and close the parks and lose that revenue stream to boot. And who is going to get them to come with the same "special administrative district deal"? They would be fleeing to spite a red state, and it would be very odd politically for a blue state to grant those privileges.

Pretty much zero. They need a good-weather state, and they already have Disneyland in Anaheim. Where would they go? Texas? Arizona?

Maybe Puerto Rico?

I’ve been wondering the opposite:

I wonder how much of the economy is driven by these theme parks. For the third biggest economy in the US, I find it’s lacks of lots of things that even a neighboring state seems to do better. Wild guess, but much of the economy seems based on tourism (which I imagine even with everything in Florida Disney constitutes a large chunk of) and real estate from people moving down from northeast with wads of cash.

If that’s the case I can’t imagine Florida politicians willing to do away that even for the current party zeitgeist.

I’d guess it’s not that big a part of the state economy, but definitely a big part of the Orlando area’s. Just my guess.

Moving would be a significant action. Michael Jordan observed that even conservatives buy sneakers. I’d rather see Disney as a vague “fantasy” brand than a specific viewpoint brand, regardless of the viewpoint. Wouldn’t push that preference on anyone else.

It's a big source of revenue for Disney, but I don't know what their business calculus is. It would be very cool if they just walked away, it would be a huge loss for Florida.

It's more likely they'll just fund opposition and play the long game.