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This seems to get closer to the "is it insurance, or is it gambling?" line than many things.


I guess the difference is not in the transaction itself. The key part is that insurance counteracts a risk on your part: If it lowers the variance of your final balance, it's insurance. If it raises the variance, it's gambling.


When I was at Microsoft about 15-16 years ago there was a fairly big poker setup. Where I was, and I'm sure across the board, the advice that was given was that we were free to have tournaments on company property, however, one of the rules were that you could never actively bet truly blind, i.e. you had to see your cards first. According to whomever decided that, that was sufficient to keep your poker game a game of skill, and not gambling, since if you didn't know your hand, you were just relying on luck, not playing odds.


Guessing that there was no rake? How were the dealers being paid, though?


Well, that line mostly boils down to whether the expected value of the bet is positive, and the insurer in the article seems to do pretty sound analysis to ensure his expected return is positive. I don't see where it gets close to gambling.


Most people don't have that as the distinction. The distinction has tended to be defined around "are you creating new risk?"

If yes = gambling. If no = insurance (or hedging).


Neither have a positive return as far as the gambler/insuree is concerned, if they do, they casino/insurer will not stay in business for long!

The difference is that one has a potential huge upside, the other prevents a potential huge downside


One should keep in mind that the literal "best odds", as far as i know, at any casino are on "Don't" bets on craps, after the shooter lands a number and the button says "ON". With odds on your Don't bet, you can take the house edge down to 0.13%, or 13 cents for every $100 you bet. If you don't feel like "laying odds" you can place "Come" bets with odds behind them for 0.16%. I rarely play don't, but when i do, i'm the shooter!


I am not sure insurance v. gambling has anything to do with expected value. Typically, I see the distinction as protecting something you already have compared to getting something new.


> the insurer in the article seems to do pretty sound analysis to ensure his expected return is positive

Just like casinos ensure their expected return is positive. So?


Well, I'd say if the insurer is the house, then the insuree might be the gambler.


The insuree feels like a gambler to the insurer/house, but they never get the money. Their goal is the exact opposite of gambling, to pay a fixed fee to remove variance.


There's no difference between an actuary working at State Farm and a sports bookmaker at Caesar's. Except for the pari-mutuel aspect.




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