"[In comments Eric S. Raymond] Says:
Um, what global warming? There hasn’t been any since 1998. Recently global average temperature has actually been dropping rather dramatically, enough to wipe out the last century of warming trend."
Good lord, did I really consider this guy a luminary in my teens? I am ashamed.
The thing about being a contrarian is that you end up wrong sometimes...possibly a lot of the time. I think we still need them, though, to keep us questioning common wisdom. And ESR, for all his flaws, is still an interesting character and a useful member of society.
My opinion of him isn't too high. He likes to brandy himself about as some sort of hacker hero, but in truth, he's not really contributed much to OSS. Combined with him standing up a packed audience at my college without even bothering to call and cancel, and general nutjobery (see his rants about guns or mysticism) I'm somewhat less than a fan.
We need wackos like Stallman. He's a little south of sanity, but damn, he's slung a lot of code and really changed the landscape of technology with his idealism.
> My opinion of him isn't too high. He likes to brandy himself about as some sort of hacker hero, but in truth, he's not really contributed much to OSS.
OSS ESR has been involved in or founded:
Fetchmail,
GPSd,
CML2,
The Cathedral and the Bazaar,
The Jargon File,
Terminfo/Termcap,
VC Mode/GUB in Emacs (ESR is the second biggest lisp contributor to Emacs after RMS),
Contribs to Gnuplot, Gnome, Python, Groff and Nethack,
GNU Toolkit SED,
Hexdump,
gif2png,
Bogofilter,
Countless Howtos at the LDP
With the exception of the above, you're right he's not contributed much to OSS. I'm not saying ESR's not a polarising person (I've met both ESR and RMS, both can be black and white people) but he has contributed a lot to OSS.
As noted below, his versions (or contributions) to most of those software projects were all pretty trivial. And listing "projects" like hexdump is kind of cute -- it's 211 lines of code.
The one claim that stood out there -- the one that gave a really testable statement that would have surprised me if true was, "ESR is the second biggest lisp contributor to Emacs after RMS". I thought, hey, there'd be a surprise, so I decided to run cvstat on the emacs lisp subdir:
- RMS contributed the 2nd most code to Emacs' Lisp with 217542 lines of changes.
- ESR contributed the 39th most code to Emacs' Lisp with 6367 lines of changes.
The reason that I don't like the guy so much is because he claims to speak for a movement, that by his own prognostication is a meritocracy, and I don't feel like he has the credibility for that. Combined with the fact that I think a lot of what he says is bozo-riffic, I'd prefer him step back from his self-appointed spokesman position.
Pretty much. Most influential wackos tend to be single minded about some ideological point. Sometimes that gets them a peace prize, other times it involves invading neighboring countries. ;-)
I've talked to him. It's amusing. And inspiring. And a little frustrating. At least as of a couple years ago he'd still interrupt you every single time you said "Linux" to stick a "GNU" in there.
That's a long list, but most of them are toys, scripts or quick hacks. Even the ones that almost look significant at first glance -- i.e. bogofilter or sed -- not so much.
His version of bogofilter was 900 lines of code and his version of sed 1700. I'd guess that the total amount of code that he's written that gets packaged for a standard Linux distribution is maybe 5k LOC. That's being generous, honestly. And that's what I find disingenuous when he's busy talking about his prolific OSS background.
The comments about Stallman's sanity weren't meant to be taken literally. I assumed that was obvious.
Ok, you don't think that's much code/of very high quality/of much usefulness . . . very well, I now respectfully ask you to tell us how much/of what quality/how useful code YOU have contributed.
There is a difference between a contrarian and someone who is wrong on basic facts:
"And no, electric cars aren’t the answer either; the power to run them has to come from somewhere. The best case is that people will charge them off the grid at night. This will require power plants to be burning just as much additional fuel as if the cars themselves were doing it, perhaps more given transmission losses." --ESR
"Pacific Northwest National Laboratory calculates that there is enough excess nighttime generating capacity nationwide to charge 84 percent of the 198 million cars, pickups, and SUVs on the road today. Ideally, the energy charging those cars would come from carbon-free sources, which would reduce almost to zero the greenhouse gas emissions per mile. But a joint study by Electric Power Research Institute and the Natural Resources Defense Council found that even if a plug-in vehicle got all its electricity from coal-fired plants (the U.S. electricity grid is about 50 percent coal), it would still emit only two-thirds of the greenhouse gases released by a conventional car. Over the next thirty years, the study concluded, widespread adoption of V2G could eliminate 450 million tons of carbon dioxide annually, the equivalent of retiring a third of the current fleet." From Earth: The Sequel (p. 226)
"This only means no new power plants. The current ones would have to step up production at night."
I realize that. However, also realize that wind power is running at peak production during the night, which is when people would be charging their cars. Also realize the 2/3 number was for if 100% of the power was coming from coal, which it obviously wouldn't be.
However, it accounts for about a third of all new electricity production. You have to remember that a cap-and-trade bill is going to be what makes both V2G and renewable energy profitable, so if it becomes profitable to build V2G cars then it will also be profitable to increase wind capacity. I forgot that solar thermal is also an excellent candidate for creating electricity at night, since you can store excess hot water very efficiently during the day and then use a small amount of natural gas to make sure it's at the optimally efficient temperature to spin the turbines.
[Windpower] accounts for about a third of all new electricity production.
No. Here is the Wikipedia quote: "Wind power accounted for 35% of all new U.S. electric generating capacity in 2007." (Emphasis mine.) Capacity is not production. Capacity-factor helps us understand how much production we can expect from a given capacity. Here are the capacity-factors of two recently-installed wind turbines:
Hull 1 is a turbine that was built to replace an older one that -- as frequently happens to wind turbines, but has never happened to a nuclear power reactor -- had been destroyed in a storm. (http://www.hullwind.org/history.php) Being destroyed in a storm further hurts lifetime capacity-factor.
Only if these percentages are in series. Since we're talking about the same power plants, it seems that 1/3 is all we get.
Checking the study in question (first hit for 'study "Electric Power Research Institute" "Natural Resources Defense Council"'), it seems they did _not_ take into account the production and maintenance costs of each type of vehicle.
I'm skeptical of technologies that promise incremental conservation through massive consumption of other resources (battery material).
"Only if these percentages are in series. Since we're talking about the same power plants, it seems that 1/3 is all we get."
To quote E:TS again:
"Without any major breakthroughs, vehicles that are little different from today's could use one-third the energy per mile, says John DeCicco, Environmental Defense Fund's specialist in automotive strategies. That alone would radically reduce greenhouse gas emissions. If those cars ran on a biofuel made from renewable feedstocks with one-fourth the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions of today's gasoline (Amyris's biogasoline, for instance, or Verenium's cellulosic ethanol), then the emissions per mile would be one-twelfth what they are today, a reduction of 92 percent. It was the feasibility of such options that, in September 2007, caused Vermont U.S. District Judge William K. Sessions to reject manufacturers' challenges and rule that they could meet California's new standards, requiring carbon dioxide emissions in new cars to be cut about 22 percent in the first phase (2009 through 2012) and 30 percent in the mid-term phase (2013 to 2016). Given the expected doubling by midcentury of vehicle miles traveled in the United States, however, California and the rest of the country will have to go much further--reducing automobile emissions about 80 percent." (p. 229)
The book lists a whole boatload of other ways to save massive amounts of energy with today's technology, many of which are listed in my notes of chapter 9: http://alexkrupp.com/earth.html
The sections on weather prediction, clean cement, carpeting, and fans are insanely cool.
Yeah, exactly. I was picking on electric cars because they only address a subproblem; other technologies are certainly more promising.
...
"Another innovation came in the carpet pattern itself. The company's top-selling pattern, called Entropy, mimics the disorder of a forest floor with its strewn leaves, pebbles, and twigs. That randomness means that the pattern needn't match up from tile to tile, but can be laid out in any direction, eliminating the huge amounts of scrap normally generated at installation. It means few tiles are rejected at the factor: imperfections get lost in the wandering variations of color. It also means the carpet lasts a long time, because worn or stained tiles can be swapped out without replacing the rest." (p. 215)
It's pretty good. (Disclaimer: my dad is the co-author.) It's a little technical in places, especially in the solar photovoltaic chapter, but overall it's far superior to getting your education on renewable energy from articles in Wired or the thinly rewritten press releases that get posted to Reddit and news.yc. It's a current events type book and I don't think it's so insightful that people will be reading it fifty years from now, but it's still definitely worth a read since we're about to see the biggest economic boom in history (as soon as cap-and-trade gets enacted next year) based on the technologies and ideas in the book. I read it twice and I feel like I have a pretty good grasp on the issues now, especially after taking notes the second time. I'd still like to read more books in the same topic area, but right now I'm working through a pile of educational theory stuff.
It's 2/3, but it can come from coal. There are very significant political/economic advantages to that. A simultaneous 1/3 environmental advantage is icing on the cake.
Sure. You can gauge a hacker's grip on reality based on what specific year they stopped taking him seriously. One does not get granularity that fine very often. Few people spend a day a week composing more and more whacky odes to junk science and more and more possessed rants against the cultural tapestries of entire continents. Even fewer people manage to slowly but consistently rack it up over the better part of a decade. Every field should get itself some Raymond or other, really.
Now excuse me while I go sip some latte, nibble some brie, and appease to some Islamofascists with my fellow Idiotarians.
In one important study, Dr. Clenton Owensby and colleagues, studied ruminants grazing in a FACE range with a doubled CO2 level on Kansas’ grassy rangelands. Their studies into the impact of increasing carbon dioxide on those rangelands revealed a surprising effect. The grass these animals foraged from the FACE range had less nitrogen and correspondingly less protein. The protein content and digestibility, even by the four highly efficient stomachs of ruminants, was reduced at increased CO2 level.
Good lord, did I really consider this guy a luminary in my teens? I am ashamed.