One must build elaborate, implausible motivations for everyone in order to maintain the "It's definitely Russia" theory when there are more plausible, direct motivations to hand in the "Anyone but Russia" theory.
Who stands to benefit from permanently ending European dependence on Russian fuel?
Norway? To conclude Norway (it's not Norway, but for example), one can simply point at the loss of a competitor. No weird 4D chess, no weird contorted motives. Direct, simple.
To conclude a German opposition group, one can simply point at the effect of the loss of the pipelines. Scholz government cannot heat Germans this winter, opposition gets to criticize the sitting government for over-reliance on Russia and such fragile infrastructure. Opposition wins the election. No weird 4D chess, no weird contorted motives. Direct, simple.
To conclude any one of the Baltic States (or Poland), one can simply point at the effect of the end of European dependence on Russian energy. It removes the most persistent barrier to implementing harsher sanctions, and a weaker Russia is less likely to invade them for a generation or two. No weird 4D chess, no weird contorted motives. Direct, simple.
Poland, for its part, has the added lucrative benefit of being the sole endpoint of the sole working trans-Baltic pipeline. No weird 4D chess, no weird contorted motives. Direct, simple.
To conclude anyone at all who support Ukraine, one can simply point that it weakens Russia's war effort, hastening an end to the war and making Russia more vulnerable to sanctions. No weird 4D chess, no weird contorted motives. Direct, simple.
To conclude Russia or Putin, one must explain how losing potential access to hundreds of billions of Euros benefits Russia or Putin. (Hint: it doesn't). Requires weird 4D chess, weird contorted motives. Not direct. Not simple.
1) Priors. Russia loves their clandestine operations to kill somebody or blow stuff up in europe. Be it weapons depots in Czechia or bulgaria, poisoning opponents with radioactive materials or nerve agents your various russian intelligence agencies are there for you. This happened recently, not some cold war stuff.
2.) You are forgetting to include the possible downsides for getting caught in your analysis.
* Russia: Basically none. They blew up their own pipelines. Strange, but they have done stranger things. They will deny it anyway and nothing would come of it.
* USA: Massive. The whole alliance against Russia would crumble over winter and Russia would have a much easier time evading sanctions. Anti US sentiment in europe would go through the roof.
Yes, it could have been Poland or the Baltics but 2:1 my money would be on Russia to sow discord, fear and distrust. Just think how fast that Biden statement was presented as proof for US involvement. Russia right now needs to try and reduce financial and arms aid to Ukraine, any economic considerations are probably secondary. Not saying that would be a good strategy, but that hasnt prevented Russia in the past.
> Russia: Basically none. They blew up their own pipelines.
They did it in sovereign territory, one of which is a NATO member. So, no, there is not "Basically no consequence". There is a very real likelihood that a NATO member will invoke Article 5.
Not only that, the direct consequences are dire for Russia at a time when they desperately need leverage over Europe. Now they have none.
Who stands to benefit from permanently ending European dependence on Russian fuel?
Norway? To conclude Norway (it's not Norway, but for example), one can simply point at the loss of a competitor. No weird 4D chess, no weird contorted motives. Direct, simple.
To conclude a German opposition group, one can simply point at the effect of the loss of the pipelines. Scholz government cannot heat Germans this winter, opposition gets to criticize the sitting government for over-reliance on Russia and such fragile infrastructure. Opposition wins the election. No weird 4D chess, no weird contorted motives. Direct, simple.
To conclude any one of the Baltic States (or Poland), one can simply point at the effect of the end of European dependence on Russian energy. It removes the most persistent barrier to implementing harsher sanctions, and a weaker Russia is less likely to invade them for a generation or two. No weird 4D chess, no weird contorted motives. Direct, simple.
Poland, for its part, has the added lucrative benefit of being the sole endpoint of the sole working trans-Baltic pipeline. No weird 4D chess, no weird contorted motives. Direct, simple.
To conclude anyone at all who support Ukraine, one can simply point that it weakens Russia's war effort, hastening an end to the war and making Russia more vulnerable to sanctions. No weird 4D chess, no weird contorted motives. Direct, simple.
To conclude Russia or Putin, one must explain how losing potential access to hundreds of billions of Euros benefits Russia or Putin. (Hint: it doesn't). Requires weird 4D chess, weird contorted motives. Not direct. Not simple.