Id love to see an analysis on skill v luck for nfl fantasy. Far too often do I see someone who does not watch football and does not make team changes win a league after drafting Tom Brady in the second round.
I used to be co-owner of an NFL fantasy prize league company (before Fanduel et al came along and put us and all of our competitors out of business). After a decade of seeing thousands of users create an manage teams for an entire season I'd say it's probably more skill than luck but luck plays a much bigger factor than people are willing to admit.
The biggest problem with leagues is everyone in the league remaining involved even when it's obvious they're out of the playoff race. This can lead to lopsided victories later in the season and change playoff seeding. This can be just as impactful as any injuries or bad weeks and the like. It was a constant challenge for us and is something the daily leagues don't have to worry about.
The fantasy playoffs are probably the most pure form of NFL fantasy leagues but that is also very dependent on who the opponents are for each of your players those last couple weeks and who is even avail to play given players being rested or injured later in the year.
In some ways this actually isn't a whole lot different than the actual NFL. That said we did seem to see the same people every year win more often than others, so it's not all luck.
