A rock certainly isn't going to surprise us in any time scale relevant for us. The processes shaping it will be more from the outside than inside it's boundaries. Certainly chaos theory and quantum uncertainty are at play, but the stone is rather just like a single pendulum which swings rather very predictably and humans seem to be more like dual pendulums which are so chaotic that they escape simulation beyond minutes.
We have come far to scan the brain for the manifestation of conscious decision making, but nobody serious is claiming that we can predict human choices from say 20 minutes before a decision is made. In the same sense that we can predict the weather now 7-10 days but would never think it viable to go for 100 day weather forecasts.
This phenomenon is certainly on a sliding scale and we might simulate rather well jellyfish, fly, and increasingly bigger brains, but the fundamental uncertainty just means we won't be able to get the outcome correct enough the longer we look into the future.
Our inability to predict something on an arbitrary timescale isn't the threshold for free will, right? Otherwise, we'd say tornadoes and hurricanes exhibit free will.
A rock certainly isn't going to surprise us in any time scale relevant for us. The processes shaping it will be more from the outside than inside it's boundaries. Certainly chaos theory and quantum uncertainty are at play, but the stone is rather just like a single pendulum which swings rather very predictably and humans seem to be more like dual pendulums which are so chaotic that they escape simulation beyond minutes.
We have come far to scan the brain for the manifestation of conscious decision making, but nobody serious is claiming that we can predict human choices from say 20 minutes before a decision is made. In the same sense that we can predict the weather now 7-10 days but would never think it viable to go for 100 day weather forecasts.
This phenomenon is certainly on a sliding scale and we might simulate rather well jellyfish, fly, and increasingly bigger brains, but the fundamental uncertainty just means we won't be able to get the outcome correct enough the longer we look into the future.