> To steelman it, the US has a far lower dependence on trade as a percentage of GDP than just about any other country, so if any country will be likely to (raw-economic-numbers) survive a shock like this, it's the US.
The reason this line of thinking doesn't work is that these measures affect all the trade that the US does with anyone, but for any other country they affect only the trade with the US. The US relative dependence on the entire world is larger than any individual country's relative dependency on just the US.
To illustrate:
US imports seem to typically be about 15% of the US GDP. EU exports to the US are only 3% of the EU GDP. So we'd kind of expect the shock to the US to be 5x larger than the shock to the EU.
The reason this line of thinking doesn't work is that these measures affect all the trade that the US does with anyone, but for any other country they affect only the trade with the US. The US relative dependence on the entire world is larger than any individual country's relative dependency on just the US.
To illustrate:
US imports seem to typically be about 15% of the US GDP. EU exports to the US are only 3% of the EU GDP. So we'd kind of expect the shock to the US to be 5x larger than the shock to the EU.