The article links to a story about Igor Kenk, he stole almost 3,000 bicycles. He was caught, sentenced to 30 months and served 16. That's a few hours per bike, I think.
Sixteen months in jail is a pretty big risk, even if it is only a few hours per bike. On the other hand, 22 of the charges were apparently drug-related.
I wonder what his dollars-per-hour-in-jail ratio was.
I believe there are some studies showing that the risk of doing any jail time, as a binary measure, is the main way jail time deters crime, with length of sentence not being a particularly effective deterrent. If there's perceived to be a 1% risk of arrest for some crime, then whether the sentence is 6 months or 6 years tends not to matter a lot, because people tend to optimistically assume they won't be caught anyway and block the other possibility out of their mind.
Partly, iirc, because people are emboldened once they've successfully done something a few times and not gotten caught; they start convincing themselves that they've figured out how to beat the system, as opposed to just having gotten lucky so far. Hence I believe one of the most effective ways to deter shoplifting, for example, is just to catch a larger percentage of attempts, even if the punishment is nominal: if someone's caught on one of their first few attempts, many will be deterred from trying further, because getting caught becomes an observed reality rather than just a theoretical possibility that can be rationalized away. Basically, some percentage of people test the boundaries but will stop trying if they get some evidence that the boundaries are really there.
Further, I think most HN readers when giving the opportunity to make $10,000 cash by stealing a bike would not risk it if their total possible punishment was a misdemeanor and 5 days in jail.
I personally want to avoid ever having to step foot in that place for any length of time.
I've spent 24 hours in a holding cell right after high school. It was cold, my seatmates weren't particularly polite, sleeping was an awkward proposition at best.
But if I was paid $2k to do it? Sure.
Aside from the toilet situation, it's not significantly worse than being on a intercontinental flight. (In fact, I'd rather spend 24 hours in that cell than three hours on a turbulent flight.)
I think you're underestimating how a lot of people live and what they value and then people are also underestimating what's bad about jail.
If we assume that death and sexual assault are not going to happen in this 5 days I would guess most people would do it and from what I've read it's pretty rare for either of those things to happen in the short term jails, it's prison that's the bigger risk -- and even then apparently sexual assault is way exaggerated in the media.
Can you describe what your friends have described happening in jail that makes you so against it? From the AMAs people have done on reddit about jail and prison it seems jail is something anyone with the ability to enjoy their own company can get through with ease, although I guess it could be that your country uses jail and prison as an interchangeable term?
I think you're underestimating how a lot of people live and what they value
Probably, I view $10K as a lot of money but that I expect to make, and do not need to go to jail to get.
If we assume that death and sexual assault are not going to happen in this 5 days
You can't. You will be in a facility with people awaiting trial for murder, violent acts, prostitution, hardcore drugs etc. They may segregate them, they may not, you won’t know until you get in there.
A holding cell has mainly people arrested for crimes that are not remotely serious.
Can you describe what your friends have described happening in jail that makes you so against it?
My 2 friends that have been to jail primarily mentioned that the people were way different and being stuck there felt much more real. Normally when people go to a holding cell our age they are not sober. After 24 hours you become pretty sober.
although I guess it could be that your country uses jail and prison as an interchangeable term?
I live in the US. Jails are for misdemeanors and people awaiting trail, prisons are for people convicted of felonies.
it's not the time in jail that would deter me. I mean, let me bring a book, and I'd do 24 hours in a holding cell for two grand. Heck, you could probably talk me into doing it for free if I was reasonably certain of my safety, I had some free time, and I could call it a "journalistic experience" and write about it without anyone thinking I had actually done anything wrong.
This is, I think, one of the weird things about the legal system. As someone without a record, getting any criminal record at all would have a staggeringly high cost to me. I wouldn't take even a misdemeanour for $10K. If I already had a record? eh, what's a few days spent reading?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igor_Kenk
This isn't an American thing apparently, it seems stealing a bike anywhere in the world has absolutely no real risk, even if you still 3,000...