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Are you surprised by that? The 10x longer statement doesn't surprise me at all. If you ask someone, "Please implement a Java class that has the following methods and behaves like this" you might expect any competent programmer to finish within ~3x of each other.

But given some more nebulous task, where architectural decisions must be made and serious research and testing needs to be done, it's not surprising at all. For example, if you asked someone, "Please write me a library so that I can send and receive XMPP messages," I would expect a large number of otherwise competent programmers to make a significant number of false starts and poor decisions, and generally take much more time than the guy who has experience writing libraries and interpreting text protocols. For example, consider the case of Ron Jeffries and Peter Norvig writing a sudoku solver[1] (this example is a perennial favorite of mine in all sorts of discussions).

And I don't think anything is "very seriously wrong" with this situation. Different skillsets and competence levels result in drastically different results. I think this is true of any profession that is largely about creative problem-solving: some can do it efficiently, some cannot. Programming is just a unique case because there are so many people trying it and not being deterred due to poor performance because there is such a demand.

[1] http://ravimohan.blogspot.com/2007/04/learning-from-sudoku-s...



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