Rare earths are not rare on Earth, but production of rare earth metals is rare and difficult and almost exclusively done by China. There are two other factors that make this announcement important though. One is the use of the foreign direct product rule, which means China is requiring all use of rare earths produced by China to be tracked and require approval, and all military applications are not going to be approved (why would China arm it's competitors?) The other factor is that while things like F-35's may only use a few hundred pounds of rare earths each and there are not many of them, things like smart bombs and semiconductors need rare earths and there are a LOT of those. If China can truly cut the US from China's production, it's likely going to greatly reduce the US's current attempts to scale up both weapons production and the more advanced semiconductors (like GPU's for AI) until the US can get alternate sources. It will take 5-10 years to build alternate sources (some small pilot projects are near completion, but scaling up will take a while), so during that time the US could be short on weapons and compute power. The US military has done some stock piling of rare earths, but it's a fairly small stockpile. So worst case is no weapons or AI for the US for some time.
There will also be consumer effects. EV's, drones, phones, TV's, RC cars, and more all use rare earths or rare earth magnets. Because rare earths were cheap before, most quality electric motors now use them. China can now cut off those uses also if they want to.
How effectively China can halt sales to the US is debatable. The CIA could start a toy manufacturer front company and buy rare earth magnets for example. China may eventually find out and cut them off, but then the CIA can just start a new front company. Buying from European or Asian companies as intermediaries may be difficult to enforce. If a war started over Taiwan, China could just cut off all shipments to the world. So there is perhaps a five year window here where China can exercise power via rare earths. Beyond that alternate sources will likely be in place.
So one thing China is "saying" here is that if the US is going to cut China off from advanced computer chips, China is going to make it impossible to make those chips so the US won't have them either. This could be enough to bring a sudden halt to US AI investment. It would definitely introduce a big new uncertainty.
"It will take 5-10 years to build alternate sources (some small pilot projects are near completion, but scaling up will take a while), so during that time the US could be short on weapons"
As I said elsewhere, if the US really wanted to it could solve the shortage in only months. I refer you to the phenomenal retooling exercise and enormous production growth in WWII. I suggest you read those stats.
From about the 1910s to the 1960s, the USA was considered the world's factory. If you wanted the get a product made, you'd go there to set up a production line; if you wanted to make a factory elsewhere, you'd hire American experts to teach you and tool it up for you.
The USA no longer has that role for hardware, although it does for software.
The US had the knowledge in the workforce to do the retooling 80 years ago, why do you think that still exists? You can believe that all you want, it's a comforting thought but I don't see 2025 USA having at all the same capacity.
The US still one of the leading countries in the world for mining and refining by any measure. It has extensive expertise and its mineral wealth is unusually diverse.
All of this is despite the fact the US effectively banned new mining several decades ago. The US is a mineral juggernaut and has the technical knowledge but growth has been severely restricted as a matter of policy for a long time.
By analogy, US oil production was in terminal decline since the 1970s and presumed dead at the end of the 20th century. Now the US is the world’s leading oil producer with no sign of slowing down.
There is every reason to believe the same thing would happen if the US decided to re-open the mountain west to mineral exploration.
> How effectively China can halt sales to the US is debatable.
Every intermediary or degree of separation introduced raises the price as each link in the chain demands their slice of the action. They might not be able to stop sales, but I imagine they might make it quite expensive.
There will also be consumer effects. EV's, drones, phones, TV's, RC cars, and more all use rare earths or rare earth magnets. Because rare earths were cheap before, most quality electric motors now use them. China can now cut off those uses also if they want to.
How effectively China can halt sales to the US is debatable. The CIA could start a toy manufacturer front company and buy rare earth magnets for example. China may eventually find out and cut them off, but then the CIA can just start a new front company. Buying from European or Asian companies as intermediaries may be difficult to enforce. If a war started over Taiwan, China could just cut off all shipments to the world. So there is perhaps a five year window here where China can exercise power via rare earths. Beyond that alternate sources will likely be in place.
So one thing China is "saying" here is that if the US is going to cut China off from advanced computer chips, China is going to make it impossible to make those chips so the US won't have them either. This could be enough to bring a sudden halt to US AI investment. It would definitely introduce a big new uncertainty.