In other words, there is a risk/reward function that has the likelihood of the company being successful as a variable. For all intents and purposes, you'll basically be guessing this value (high uncertainty != high risk).
If you have to ask, it's better to have the raise.
The bit in there about employers being happy to see their share price rise to just $10? It's pointing out that your interests and the founders interests aren't aligned. Founders have so many shares that a $5MM sale can be a winning lottery ticket. It might mean just $5,000 for you.
