On the other hand, maybe a lot of people got laid off and decided to pad their resume with this certification. If you're up against a lot of other people for the same job, having an extra acronym may be (or seem like) a deciding factor.
Also, certification processes are much more valuable when the infrastructure is young and there aren't that many people who have simply been working in the industry for five or ten years. An apples to apples comparison between the US and China on this basis isn't possible, and it's willfully stupid to pretend otherwise.
I bet the number of Sun Java certifications will decline in the future, but it's probably more a case of less interest in J2EE and the Sun way of doing stuff. So, with my indicator, we're all doomed.
Using Dow's transportation notion, we might look at the number of new truck driver certifications as a leading indicator of the market. However, looking at the certification rate for Freightliner vehicles (a non-existent certification, but fun to think about) is more likely a measurement of the relative importance of that brand of truck than anything macroeconomic. And, rather than looking at certifications, why not look at number of truck miles driven, number of truck tires purchased, etc. Shouldn't Cringly be looking at Cisco's sales data for routers instead?
Also, certification processes are much more valuable when the infrastructure is young and there aren't that many people who have simply been working in the industry for five or ten years. An apples to apples comparison between the US and China on this basis isn't possible, and it's willfully stupid to pretend otherwise.