For instance, record stores are almost certainly a shrinking business. Between walmart picking up the high volume on top hits CD's and iTunes covering that and everything else, it seems like it would be hard to get into the business of selling hard copies of music...

But people still really like to get together to appreciate music. I'm old enough to have browsed for hours at Tower Records - using a CD purchase as an excuse to enjoy being in a record store, around all the other music geeks. The 90s were not exactly a match for the glory days of the 70s at record stores, from what I've heard, but it was still pretty great, and I'm sad they're going away.

Maybe this will create an opportunity somewhere new. Not in a record store, but in something that will give people what they used to get from the record store. iTunes and WalMart may very well take the business of selling copies of music, but I doubt they can replace that atmosphere... so either it will go away, or it will live someplace new. I'd bet on the second.

Of course, the new venu may just be some speakers in a dorm room, so this isn't necessarily a business opportunity... maybe just a cultural shift.

I know where you're coming from. Tower Records was just always a fun stop on an evening or afternoon out doing nothing in particular. They had movies, they had CDs, they had funky magazines. I'm just amazed how quickly they folded. They were huge and seemed quite profitable. I never suspected in the 90's that they would be gone in a decade. Then again, that's nothing compared to the shock the record industry experienced...

I never truly experienced it, but I suspect the user experience of oink.cd blows away any record store. It's a community made up of music geeks with instant access to almost any album recorded in the era of popular music.

Answer: Do for record stores what Barnes and Noble and Borders have done for bookstores. Borders is a place to go sit, enjoy a sandwich (or a cup of your favorite caffienated beverage), and browse books for fun. Make a 'record store' a place that people can go to enjoy music. Have live music playing during the day, like modern chamber music. Make the experience fun and interactive. Add places to sit and relax. Have jukeboxes with big libraries of quality music, that people can download to their ipods.

Newspapers:

Technology will have to advance a lot in 10 years to replace newspapers, and maybe it will. But the internet needs to be able to deliver something that people can carry with them on the subway or in the airport with minimal fuss. Personally, I'd like to see newspapers be smaller and more portable. I want something like a magazine that I can hold in my hand and isn't gigantic cumbersome mess like newsprint.

Used bookstores:

Answer: Similar to the record store issue. Used bookstores have a problem in that used books tend to be dusty and smelly. Extra steps need to be taken to be sure that the experience of visiting a used bookstore is a pleasant one in spite of this.

Coin-operated arcades:

Answer: Once again, the answer is a viable public space and pleasant customer experience. That's what movie theaters and mini-golf courses have in common. Do people really go play mini golf because the game is really that fun? Mini golf is fun, bur more importantly it is a social event. That's what Arcades were, when they were popular. I think theaters are declining partly because catering to teens appears to be cheaper. So for most people, going to a theater is not all that fun.

Can't say I like the starbucks vibe all that much, but it isn't a bad idea.

Thing is, do you think this would work for music as well as it does for books? For now, music can be digitized and delivered over the web more readily than books (I've bought a few ebooks, but I don't like them much). I do miss album art, but I'm not sure it's enough to overcome the convenience of iTunes. I suspect people would be more likely to stay in their dorm room/bedroom with friends listening and downloading.

Live music might bring them out, though - that's a possibility. Record stores have started to do this, too.

This has already happened in the UK where the major papers have all switched to tabloid-size newsprint.

Come on, do they really think that Kodak is just going to roll over and die? They'll just adapt and move to a closely-related business, like photo paper.

Is there a play to be made on ideas that are not in favor? Perhaps ideas that are on the way out? For instance, based on this article, would there be a business model in, say, creating custom vinyl records based on user's MP3 files and cover art?

Since these are declining businesses the huge numbers probably aren't there, but they might make a nice place fora bootstrapper to go -- perhaps a little safer than competing with the majority of investment money.

If you think you hate being part of a herd, imagine what it feels like to be running away from one.

If you prefer to avoid the well-traveled path, you might prefer to look for a healthy business that has not yet been mortally wounded, and try to compete with that. Remember the words of Eric Sink (http://software.ericsink.com/Choose_Your_Competition.html):

"The big problem with avoiding competition is that you are also avoiding customers. The existence of a competitor indicates the existence of paying customers. If you can't find anyone who is making money with your idea, you really need to wonder if there is any money to be made there at all."

If most people stop using and buying records, that's a "dying business model", right? So riddle me this, Batman: are there people who are going to keep using records? If so, it's certainly not for the ability to hear the music -- that problem has been solved better. Is it a lifestyle choice? Is it because they are anti-technology?

So while one definition of the record business shuts down, is there another definition that will take its place? Hey -- the answer might very well be "no". But if it is yes, it's certainly not the same business model that died. It's a whole new market, with new drivers, new players, and new distribution channels. It's also a market where there is going to be lots of talent lying around that isn't being used any more (like how to design good covers, various custom record production techniques, etc)

Continuing on in my example, if you could find 10 million folks all over the world interested in something to do with records -- custom records, records as bird houses, records as the new frisbees, whatever -- and you can market something to them that they want, that's called a business.

Running away from the competition has nothing to do with it. I'm asking a simple leverage question: given two markets of equal size and a limited budget, do you compete with a hundred other small businesses, some of which with a lot of funding? Or do you compete with 4 or 5 business, all of which are figuring it out just like you are?

I'm not taking a position. In fact, my question was "is there a contrarian play to be made?"

Obviously, you want competitors. But as the article points out, you want to pick them well. My intention was not to suggest to enter markets without competitors. Sorry if if that's what it seemed. In my mind, there's no dumber and bigger competitor than a big industry sitting on top of a "dying business model". That's because as I point out, it's easy for the most profitable business model to change without the industry being able to acknowledge it.

Seems to me that 4 or 5 competitors who are making money in a new field where there is no main player is a good spot to be in. Sometimes differentiation in a large hotly-competitive market is more hype than reality.

Anyway, I think you have a point about not trying to do what everybody else is doing, but I'm not sure targeting dying markets is going to be a winning strategy to achieve that.

Lastly I think the article is pure trash.