I don't think you've sufficiently explained how option 2 will progress all the way to communism. It seems to me that option 2 could easily reach a stable endgame that results in a sizeable chunk of the middle class being demoted to BI, but without an unbounded taxation arms race with the rich.
That's quite fair. It may just be that I marginalized the mechanism, and there's a middle ground that's less drastic. I'm not an economist, and I don't have the numbers to show it one way or another (and if I did, I'd be doing something with them!), but it seems to me that the mechanism is basic redistribution that has a built in feedback loop. It doesn't seem logical that people would argue for such a system, so I'm trying to figure out where specifically the invalid assumptions lie.
As long as the basic income implemented is much less than per-capita GDP, there's still opportunity and incentive to work to earn more, especially if the basic income level is set at a realistic poverty level that doesn't allow for much in the way of luxuries. And if the basic income only provides a net income boost to a minority of voters, then there will be electoral pressure to keep it low, rather than to keep increasing it. It's not a slippery slope we're discussing here so much as a slippery mountain with communism on the other side but some significant uphills between here and there.
I also don't think that a basic income would have as strong an inflationary effect as you think it would on the items necessary to survive on a basic income. Since the basic income would replace minimum wage, producers would be free to pay cheap labor much closer to fair market value, so the cost of the products of unskilled labor could drop significantly (offset by an increase in the price of luxuries due to higher income taxes).
> As long as the basic income implemented is much less than per-capita GDP, there's still opportunity and incentive to work to earn more, especially if the basic income level is set at a realistic poverty level that doesn't allow for much in the way of luxuries.
I'm really trying to avoid arguments about whether BI would encourage or retard laziness, because I can't make an intelligent argument one way or the other. My concern is with the cost of funding, and the negative effects that would have on currently-productive parts of the market.
> if the basic income only provides a net income boost to a minority of voters, then there will be electoral pressure to keep it low, rather than to keep increasing it.
Can you elaborate on this point? It seems like this same argument could be used to argue that there would be electoral pressure to not implement BI in the first place, if I understand you correctly. What makes BI electorally viable at level X but not at level Y?
> Since the basic income would replace minimum wage, producers would be free to pay cheap labor much closer to fair market value, so the cost of the products of unskilled labor could drop significantly (offset by an increase in the price of luxuries due to higher income taxes).
I hadn't considered that at all. Interesting variable. This actually changes my view of the whole thing substantially, since the reduced cost of labor could be the variable that employers could tweak to keep prices approximately stable (I get less of each dollar earned, but it costs less to earn that dollar, so it's a wash). I was assuming that labor costs would remain fixed, but if BI permitted for them to be reduced, that might in fact address one of the biggest concerns.
> It seems like this same argument could be used to argue that there would be electoral pressure to not implement BI in the first place, if I understand you correctly.
I think the evidence strongly indicates that this is the case. Basic Income has not been implemented, and won't pass any referendum without the help of sympathy for the poor. (I don't think enough people will be swayed by the possible long-term benefits.)