> On the other hand, I don't think that means airport security should be drastically scaled back
It absolutely should be drastically scaled back. Or eliminated entirely. The thing you're ignoring is that the current level of airport security kills a lot of people. It does so largely by making flying more expensive and inconvenient so people drive instead of fly and as a result die in auto accidents. The TSA makes us all poorer and causes a great many deaths for no clear benefit whatsoever. The hypothetical attackers who you are postulating might be deterred are a sufficiently weird edge case that it's unlikely they exist at all. Basically, you're imagining somebody who has all the following attributes at once. He or she:
(a) is highly motivated to do evil things that kill lots of people in a high-profile fashion
(b) has the resources to actually implement a plan to do these evil things.
(c) is SMART enough that the attack WOULD succeed were it not for security. If they made a bomb, they were successful at figuring out how to make one that would work well (unlike the shoe bomber and the underwear bomber)
(d) but is DUMB enough that they just can't figure out any way to get around security.
(e) but is SMART enough to REALIZE they can't get around security, so they don't try to do so anyway (explaining the fact that security has never ever caught even a single person trying to do so)
(f) but is DUMB enough that they can't think of any way to use the same resources to carry out some OTHER attack that kills a similar number of people with similar terrorizing effect, like by attacking the security line or a bridge or a tunnel or a shopping mall.
If you can find anybody with all those characteristics at once, THAT is the person who airport security has saved us from.
Exactly, there is a massive opportunity cost [1] at play here when you exchange very neutral/limited returns in security, for crippling airport efficiency and disrupting the lives of individuals making them not want to fly (invading privacy, long lines, belittling treatment, etc).
Just arguing whether or not TSA is effective at stopping smart vs dumb criminals is too limited of a discussion. It needs to also factor in the trade-offs at risk of being able to even do so.
Especially considering the TSA is reporting tens of thousands of false-positives for every real security threat prevented. That ratio can't be ignored as a counter-weight.
It absolutely should be drastically scaled back. Or eliminated entirely. The thing you're ignoring is that the current level of airport security kills a lot of people. It does so largely by making flying more expensive and inconvenient so people drive instead of fly and as a result die in auto accidents. The TSA makes us all poorer and causes a great many deaths for no clear benefit whatsoever. The hypothetical attackers who you are postulating might be deterred are a sufficiently weird edge case that it's unlikely they exist at all. Basically, you're imagining somebody who has all the following attributes at once. He or she:
(a) is highly motivated to do evil things that kill lots of people in a high-profile fashion
(b) has the resources to actually implement a plan to do these evil things.
(c) is SMART enough that the attack WOULD succeed were it not for security. If they made a bomb, they were successful at figuring out how to make one that would work well (unlike the shoe bomber and the underwear bomber)
(d) but is DUMB enough that they just can't figure out any way to get around security.
(e) but is SMART enough to REALIZE they can't get around security, so they don't try to do so anyway (explaining the fact that security has never ever caught even a single person trying to do so)
(f) but is DUMB enough that they can't think of any way to use the same resources to carry out some OTHER attack that kills a similar number of people with similar terrorizing effect, like by attacking the security line or a bridge or a tunnel or a shopping mall.
If you can find anybody with all those characteristics at once, THAT is the person who airport security has saved us from.