Hacker Newsnew | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submitlogin



The log graph is scarier: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/2d/Evolutio...

(It's easier to recognize a straight line on a log scale, than to distinguish an exponential line on a linear scale from a line that's "merely" quadratic, say.)


What do similar charts for prior outbreaks like?


Here's one of the previous largest outbreak, 2000-2001 in Uganda. (Note unlike the Wikipedia one, it's not cumulative). Looks like a sudden decline in new cases right after a CDC intervention -- very sharp inflection point. The cumulative version would be roughly a sigmoid.

http://web.stanford.edu/group/parasites/ParaSites2012/Lassa%...

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5005a1.htm

Looks like there were about 10 new cases/day at its peak; the current outbreak is at 150/day.

A couple things stood out to me:

    Fourteen (64%) of 22 health-care workers in Gulu were
    infected after establishing the isolation wards; these
    incidenses led to the reinforcement of infection-control
    measures.
So that's not novel to the current outbreak at all!

    During the 4-month outbreak and response period,
    approximately 5600 contacts in Gulu District were under
    surveillance for 21 days by approximately 150 trained
    volunteers.


There's never been more than 500 cases:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Ebola_outbreaks


Are those cumulative figures? A bit misleading if so.




Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: