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No, there is no clear evidence for that, unless you count models. It is all extrapolation founded in data - we have the temperature curve for the last few hundred thousand years (basically this: [1]), as well as information about the composition of the atmosphere. It is not even clear why and how ice ages happen exactly [2].

I'd not even be sure how to show evidence for that unless we waited a few hundred thousand years to make sure the temperature curve does not behave as before. I can, however, give some links to the discussions (e.g.[3][4]). The people in [4] ran a model, here's the paper: [5], and found a small effect (contact me if you can't access it). It's hard to say how good model evidence is, however. A lot of influences are missing, and we'd need to validate the model with more data, which isn't there. (So yeah, I wouldn't count that as evidence, just a hint.)

At this point, this is just an idea discussed by people with domain knowledge and experience, nothing more. It doesn't change the fact that we have a problem, it just influences how people look at details of climate models, and which questions to ask the models.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temperature_record#mediaviewer...

or even longer for all of the planet's existence:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Five_Myr_Climate_Change.s...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_age#Causes_of_ice_ages

[3]http://www.technologyreview.com/article/416786/global-warmin...

[4]http://www.news.wisc.edu/16083

[5] http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379104...



This is a great comment and I really appreciate you putting it together for me. I've read through all the links but can only read the abstract of the paper linked at:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379104...

You mentioned that you could likely get that to me- it would be very appreciated. I'll send you a quick email as well. Thanks again!




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