Manual driven cars will not disappear, what will happen is Insurance will go through the roof as more self-driving cars are added to the roads. There will be some roads declared for self-driven cars only and some that will allow both.
I see this being the most plausible thing to happen. Separate insurance classes for manual and automatic cars, the costs of each being supported by their perspective groups.
However that begs the question: by sheer numbers would that make insurance on a automatic car comparable to a manually driven one? If there are significantly less manual cars, there are less accidents to pay out. An accident in a manual car is not a guarantee just like no accidents in automatic cars is not a guarantee.
I think if manual insurance was more expensive it would be an artificial premium based on the fear of something happening.
> However that begs the question: by sheer numbers would that make insurance on a automatic car comparable to a manually driven one? If there are significantly less manual cars, there are less accidents to pay out.
But less to spread the cost over. Moreover, insurance rates aren't set at just enough to cover the average expected cost (which would result in, over any given time period, a 50% chance of the insurance company losing money) but enough above that that the insurance company is fairly certain that it will not lose money -- because of the law of large numbers, this will (for any given minimum probability of profitability) be closer to the expected cost when there are large numbers to spread the risk over, and farther (above) that expected cost when there are smaller numbers.
So, smaller numbers of manual cars will -- all other things being equal -- drive up the costs of insuring manual cars if they are a separate risk pool from automatic cars.
"""
While it may seem harsh that the 31st-century equivalent of "Driving Under the Influence" carries with it the death penalty, this is due to an inherent inequivalency between MOUI and DUI.
With DUI, you need only climb into your vehicle while under the influence of alchohol or drugs and attempt to drive it home.
With MOUI you must disable a number of safety systems designed to prevent idiots like you from manually operating their vehicles while inebriated, overtired, wasted, decaffeinated, angry, emotionally distraught, or suffering from hormonal disorders like PMS or testosterone poisoning (the latter having been positively identified as a leading cause of stupidity among males between the ages of puberty and death). After disabling the safety systems (which task almost certainly requires ice-cold sobriety), you must decide to switch the vehicle to a manual mode of operation. In some cases, this requires installing a manual mode of operation.
After this demonstration of superior technical skills and poor judgement, you must then deliberately impair your defective judgement further by quaffing, inhaling, injecting, or otherwise consuming something mildly toxic (or, in some precedent-setting cases, breaking up with your girlfriend.)
At this point you might argue that you are no longer responsible for your actions, which actions include climbing into your vehicle and attempting to pilot it home. Technically, this is true. The prosecution will counter by arguing that it isn't Manual Operation Under the Influence that you are going to be humanely (if rather publicly) executed for. It's the fact that you deliberately made such an irresponsible act POSSIBLE by putzing around with your ride. You know those signs that say "don't putz around with this system -- serious injury or death could result?" Well, they were talking about YOUR death, and it is now resulting.
"""
(http://www.schlockmercenary.com/2002-08-29) ;)
Enjoy your cars now!