How about analyzing whether the projects funded by ICOs make any sense? With the current mania the token sales model hardly matters. Also after the mania is over, probably no matter what the model, people won't be investing, since the stupid money will run out at some point.
I think that you raise some interesting considerations, but I don't think it paints a full picture, and some of the missing parts of the picture are important.
While there are some parallels between coins and penny stocks, there are also some fundamental differences which means they aren't so easy comparable.
Sure, penny stocks are very highly speculative, just like coins, however unlike coins they have very well defined "value". That is, they are fractional ownership of a legally defined entity.
The value of a coin is much more difficult to understand and/or appreciate.
There is a strong parallel. As most coins do provide actual value and ownership of the platform. For example, while the gnosis coin is overhyped, the idea is that because of fees on the platform.. Eventually you will earn some money back. But as said before, the mania has to stop.