> Ukraine is shooting them down just fine using decades old technology.
It is not publicly known whether this is true.
The Ukrainians claim they shot down 6 of 6 Kinzhal missiles over Kiev in one night with a Patriot battery. In the available videos of the event, all that can be seen is that a few dozen air defense missiles were fired, and that something got through and struck the general location where the air defense battery was.
A very healthy dose of skepticism is warranted about claims made in wartime by interested parties.
Another view would say that the explosion in the video, where the air-defense battery appeared to be, demonstrates that the claim about all Kinzhals being intercepted was not truthful. The initial claim was that the Patriot battery was undamaged, but later it was admitted that the battery was at least partially damaged. It seems that the full truth is not being told, possibly by both sides.
> Note also that they purposefully forbid videos of air defenses to avoid showing where air defenses are.
This has not prevented videos from leaking, as in this case.
> At least one Kinzhal was confirmed shot down earlier before the wave of 6 or so.
Independently confirmed, or claimed? This gets to my initial point, that one should be extremely skeptical about unverifiable claims made by both sides.
> Another view would say that the explosion in the video, where the air-defense battery appeared to be, demonstrates that the claim about all Kinzhals being intercepted was not truthful.
This doesn't conclusively demonstrate that; an intercepted missile or drone can still easily go kaboom when the pieces hit the ground. The footage has a building between the explosion and the camera.
> Independently confirmed, or claimed?
There's at least photos of an apparently-downed Khinzal. There are no photos yet of a destroyed Patriot.
> There's at least photos of an apparently-downed Khinzal
Doesn't look much like anything one of us could recognize though. We are not experts.
More importantly, even if it is a downed Khinzal, it doesn't matter for the article, which is about hypersonic maneuverable weapons, which the Khinzal is not. So the initial post in this thread is wrong.
Experts on every side say all kinds of things. At times of war, one should be very skeptical.
It pays for Ukraine to claim they are easily downing Khinzals and minimizing their own casualties/hits. I don't blame them for this, misinformation and demoralizing the enemy is key. The Russians are doing the same on their side. Both apply military secrecy and censorship on their own camps.
"Expert" opinion shouldn't be taken as non-biased here, either.
Look, if you ask for experts, you can't complain that experts don't matter in the immediate follow-up. Is anyone reputable contesting the "that at least looks like a Khinzal" claim?
Yes, fog of war exists. Yes, both sides are going to misdirect and misinform for a variety of reasons, both good and bad. We won't know quite a few facts until after the war when the history books are written, and we won't know some of them ever.
Anyone inclined to see the air defense video as proof of a Patriot being taken out is exercising motivated thinking. Anyone inclined to take Ukrainian claims to having downed everything is doing the same thing. Right now, what we can safely conclude is a) Ukrainian air defense seems thus far to be fairly effective and b) Russian Khinzals don't appear to be a game-changer at this time.
> Look, if you ask for experts, you can't complain that experts don't matter in the immediate follow-up
I didn't ask for experts, I said no-one here is one. I also said who knows what the wreckage is? If you ask pro Ukraine experts, they'll say it's a Khinzal. If you ask pro Russians, it's a bomb fragment or whatever.
More importantly, this doesn't tell us anything about hypersonic maneuverable weapons. We already know the Khinzal isn't one. Yes, the Kremlin is making a fuss about their hypersonic weapons capability, part of their infowar campaign. TFA explains that hypersonics are nothing new and that they can be countered.
> a) Ukrainian air defense seems thus far to be fairly effective and b) Russian Khinzals don't appear to be a game-changer at this time.
No, I cannot "safely" conclude anything about either, and neither can you. Both seem likely, but "likely" and "true" are so hard to say in this war were everyone is lying through their teeth.
>There's at least photos of an apparently-downed Khinzal. There are no photos yet of a destroyed Patriot.
That doesn't prove anything, obviously the Ukr govt would supress all pics of damaged/destroyed Patriot systems while heavily promoting intercepted Khinzals.
The ground explosions were caused by Kalibr cruise missiles targeting the airport terminal nearby to where it appears (from satellite imagery) that the Patriots were stationed. It's perfectly possible that A) all Kinzhal's were indeed intercepted and B) the Patriot battery was indirectly damaged by a nearby explosion but was not even necessarily the target of the missile in question.
It can be very difficult for radars to track objects coming in from a high angle of attack and low angle of attack simultaneously, so IMO the failure to intercept makes more sense from that perspective as well.
Shrug. The Kremlin loudly arresting the Kinzhal developers for treason after the Kinzhals get shot down suggests a clear narrative to me about who is telling the truth.
The best case you can make for Russia is that the Kinzhal developers actually did commit treason but in a way that was unrelated to the Kinzhal missiles not being effective which is… laughable
"This enables the missile to penetrate through all existing and projected air defense systems and deliver a nuclear or conventional warhead over a distance in excess of two thousand kilometers" - [1]
I agree Putin said false things about the Khinzal, I don't think anybody is disputing this... Russians are inflating and lying about their own capabilities, yes.
Officially they're charged with espionage. The beneficiary wasn't specified, which lead to speculation that it is China, since if it were US or any other Western country, the official propaganda would be running amok with it.
Admitting you are wrong and made mistakes is sort of an impossible task for despot dictators though. He has spent decades killing or jailing anyone who told him something he didn't like, so everyone learned to tell him good news.
It's part of the reason why the initial invasion went so terribly; Putin's analysts told him Kyiv would bend over immediately, and that the public would welcome them as liberators.
Putin smells so much of his own farts that he bought it completely. The analysts were then shocked when Putin said "Okay, invasion today"
Who admits to waging a war of aggression though? Putin is framing this as an act of defense, he says he is acting to prevent Russia's enemies from destroying it.
When in modern times has an aggressor ever framed the aggression in terms different from a righteous defense?
If Russia actually had separation of powers etc, it would be the courts finding that the war is indeed a war of aggression, of which there is of course ample evidence.
As things are, if he's still alive by the time regime in Russia changes, that will probably be (one of) the law he will be prosecuted under.
It is not publicly known whether this is true.
The Ukrainians claim they shot down 6 of 6 Kinzhal missiles over Kiev in one night with a Patriot battery. In the available videos of the event, all that can be seen is that a few dozen air defense missiles were fired, and that something got through and struck the general location where the air defense battery was.
A very healthy dose of skepticism is warranted about claims made in wartime by interested parties.