> By the way, the U.S. has excellent defenses against all classes of ballistic missiles
I am highly skeptical of this claim.
The author is otherwise correct: you can almost pinpoint the target soon after launch of a ballistic missile because of the way trajectories work. Ballistic missles go through three phases: launch, flight and re-entry. Modern ICBMs have a re-entry velocity as high as 7km/s (Mach ~20). Intercepts at that speed have, to my knowledge, an extremely poor record.
Another factor is that ICBMs can (and do) carry multiple warheads. These will separate at different points in the flight phase or re-entry phase to hit different targets. Detecting multiple warheads isn't necessarily easy either because they're unlikely to have the visible plume of a full-blown rocket engine and it's at such a distance that radar signature probably isn't sufficient to detect the warhead let alone plot the target sufficiently accurately for a kill vehicle to hit it.
The author is otherwise correct in that the real advantage of hypersonic missiles is targeting. The speed (Mach 5-10) makes intercept difficult and you won't know the target until it hits it really so good luck intercepting that.
Maybe top secret THAAD development has improved to the point where it can reliabily intercept ICBM warheads at scale but I'll believe it when I see it. Most ICBM defense relies on hitting the launch vehicle in the boost phase because that's when it's the slowest.
I imagine the targets can be predicted based on the trajectory of the missile, the same calculations used by the missile to release the warheads could in theory be used by the defender to predict their release and intercept them.
I am highly skeptical of this claim.
The author is otherwise correct: you can almost pinpoint the target soon after launch of a ballistic missile because of the way trajectories work. Ballistic missles go through three phases: launch, flight and re-entry. Modern ICBMs have a re-entry velocity as high as 7km/s (Mach ~20). Intercepts at that speed have, to my knowledge, an extremely poor record.
Another factor is that ICBMs can (and do) carry multiple warheads. These will separate at different points in the flight phase or re-entry phase to hit different targets. Detecting multiple warheads isn't necessarily easy either because they're unlikely to have the visible plume of a full-blown rocket engine and it's at such a distance that radar signature probably isn't sufficient to detect the warhead let alone plot the target sufficiently accurately for a kill vehicle to hit it.
The author is otherwise correct in that the real advantage of hypersonic missiles is targeting. The speed (Mach 5-10) makes intercept difficult and you won't know the target until it hits it really so good luck intercepting that.
Maybe top secret THAAD development has improved to the point where it can reliabily intercept ICBM warheads at scale but I'll believe it when I see it. Most ICBM defense relies on hitting the launch vehicle in the boost phase because that's when it's the slowest.